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A modest proposal from me for a conceivable (at least) way through the Parliamentary impasse 1/
Assumption #1: that no serious statesman could even contemplate No Deal, and that there is nothing remotely close to a Parliamentary majority for it. 2/
Assumption #2: there is no way forward (except No Deal) that will not require an extension of Article 50, so just ask for it now. 3/
Assumption #2b: that the EU27 will only grant that extension if there is a clear plan for something more than just more talk. 4/
Assumption #2c: that the EU27 will not renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement to grant the UK anything better, but might (just) allow a modification which was all the same to them. 5/
So, something is needed that can command a majority in the Commons. So, how about this:
1. HMG asks the EU27 to tweak the backstop such that it applies only to Northern Ireland (Yes, yes, the DUP.. but I'm coming to that.) 6/
1. HMG asks the EU27 to tweak the backstop such that it applies only to Northern Ireland (Yes, yes, the DUP.. but I'm coming to that.) 6/
2. As part of the same motion, HMG commits to a People's Vote on that amended WA.
3. In that People's Vote, Northern Ireland must vote to accept the WA, and so the WA is lost if they do not, even if England and Wales votes for it. 7/
3. In that People's Vote, Northern Ireland must vote to accept the WA, and so the WA is lost if they do not, even if England and Wales votes for it. 7/
4. If either the UK as a whole or NI on its own votes to reject the deal, the UK remains in the EU. 8/
It seems to me that the deal, for England, Wales and Scotland, 'respects the referendum' in relation to freedom of movement, budgets and independence of trade policy. I dislike it intensely - we should Remain - but we're in the market for workable compromises. 9
To the numbers in Parliament: to the ERG - English nationalists at heart - I suspect that 'freedom' from the backstop is more important than the status of Northern Ireland. This option gives them the chance to campaign for the kind of hard Brexit that was always in mind. 10/
The Labour 'exact same benefits' Brexit was never on offer, and neither is the kind of renegotiation that Corbyn and others talk about. Their only options are to accept this WA, or to campaign for Remain. 11/
Those who desire a People's Vote (LibDems, Green, SNP) get one, and with the chance to campaign with a clearly defined Brexit to fight against. 12/
As to the DUP. Uniquely amongst the four nations of the UK, NI is represented in Parliament by only one party (since Sinn Fein do not take their seats.) Yet, the people of NI stand to be most affected by Brexit. 13/
It's time to call out the DUP's demand as one that cannot ever be achieved: a hard Brexit without a border in Ireland or in the Irish Sea. We've wasted too long because of Mrs May's error in calling an election in 2017. 14/
My proposal gives the people of NI a direct say on whether Brexit is more important to them than avoiding a change in the relationship with the rest of the UK. 18/
We avoid no deal, and everyone gets something for which to campaign. I commend the motion to the House. /ends
We avoid no deal, and everyone gets something for which to campaign. I commend the motion to the House. /ends
Several people have said that the SNP would want an equivalent veto. I wouldn't wholly disagree - though you could make a case that NI requires special treatment because of the border - but the SNP would need to think tactically: this, or No Deal? The choice is clear, I think.
Others have said that HMG would never do this because of the DUP. Well, desperate times etc. - No Deal, or a gamble on whether the DUP fear this more than a Corbyn government?
