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No Deal Brexit final day
We are tweeting the start of @iandunt's book where he sets out what would happen with a no deal Brexit.
Border checks and tariffs are causing long lorry tailbacks and gaps to appear on shelves...
We are tweeting the start of @iandunt's book where he sets out what would happen with a no deal Brexit.
Border checks and tariffs are causing long lorry tailbacks and gaps to appear on shelves...
UK negotiators head to the World Trade Organisation where Brexit campaigners have long insisted they can fall back onto standard trading rules. But there are no rules governing what Britain has done. They meet WTO legal advisers, who are divided on how Britain should proceed.
The UK has been trading under an EU umbrella for decades. Now it tries to extract its tariff and subsidy arrangements from the EU and lay them before the rest of the WTO. This triggers an avalanche of legal disputes.
WTO rules allow any country that feels it has been unfairly treated to trigger a dispute.
Suddenly Britain’s fall-back insurance policy looks like a nightmare scenario, with 163 countries able to raise disputes against it on any aspect of its trading arrangements. Some disputes are legitimate.
Others, like that made by Argentina, appear to be a way to leverage British vulnerability to regain control of the Falklands. Russia watches from the sidelines, calculating how it might benefit.
Britain argues it is still party to an EU arrangement preventing the sale of cheap Chinese steel in Europe. Once those floodgates open, the UK knows domestic steel will be unable to compete. China reacts furiously, demanding Britain demonstrate domestic injury and unfair trade.
But the UK doesn’t have an investigating authority capable of undertaking trade remedy investigations. It cannot fight back because it doesn’t have the regulatory infrastructure. Steelworkers fear for their livelihoods more than ever before.
The WTO disputes mount up, all demanding high degrees of technical expertise and negotiating experience. British teams do their best, but they are beset by problems from every angle.
In cities across the Continent, British professionals find they are unable to practise because their qualifications are no longer recognised. Architects, veterinarians, lawyers, medical professionals and others realise they have to shut down their company and return to the UK.
No deal has been put in place for legal rulings, so countries across EU stop recognising court decisions on divorce and child maintenance and other issues made in London. Unseen and mostly unreported, hundreds of UK single mothers go without payments from their former partners.
A British man who divorced his wife and married again in Italy suddenly finds that the papers are no longer recognised. He is in a state of marital limbo. A hefty chunk of the work done by London’s once-thriving lawyers vanishes.
Regulation fails. Britain did not have time to set up all the authorities required to manage industries ranging from patents to medicine. Pharmaceutical firms are thrown into chaos.
British regulators are unable to take on the full workload of the European Medicines Agency, so cannot authorise the sale of anti-inflammatory pills, eczema lotions and other treatments in the UK. British pharmaceutical development slumps into a state of regulatory bafflement.
Regulations across society are in flux. Emergency provisions are made for Single European Sky — which ensures jets fly safely and efficiently — to maintain regulatory authority over UK airspace.
But other areas fall into disrepair, causing uncertainty across production lines to complement the chaos in the trading networks.
Against this backdrop, Britain seeks trade deals with its closest allies: Australia and the US. Both countries are wary of talking to the UK without knowing its final status with Europe or the WTO, but there are initial negotiations.
Ahead of talks, the UK prime minister and the US president hold a joint press conference. Downing Street says it shows countries are still keen to trade with the UK, while Washington confirms the US commitment to the special relationship.
Then the doors of the negotiating room close and the two leaders are replaced by grim-faced trade experts.
Britain had a chronic shortage of negotiators during the EU talks and the situation has not improved. The ones facing the US team are those who are not required to fight the fires at the WTO. Many are civil servants who have had to read up on trade in the years since Brexit.
They face highly specialised American trade experts who have been doing this their entire careers.
The public rhetoric disappears. It is replaced by hard-headed demands. US trade officials inform their British counterparts of the reality of the situation.
The UK is in a position of unique and historic vulnerability. Investor confidence has dissolved. Its economy is facing its most significant shock since the Second World War. It has no time. It has no negotiating capacity.
But Washington wants to help. It is prepared to rush a trade deal through Congress. It could take less than two years. But for this to be achievable, the UK needs to accept all of its demands.
The Americans slide a piece of paper across the desk. The British team read the demands: they are horrendous. Consumer protections are reduced across the board, along with environmental regulations and safeguards for the NHS.
UK civil servants have little option but to capitulate. The only way to protect what remains of the economy is to sell off British sovereignty.
The control wrestled from Brussels is now sold off to the highest bidder, behind closed doors, in a conference room in Washington.
The control wrestled from Brussels is now sold off to the highest bidder, behind closed doors, in a conference room in Washington.
End of first chapter of Brexit: What the Hell Happens Now? by Ian Dunt
