Thread by @Yascha_Mounk

Should Democrats impeach Donald Trump now that they have control of the House?

It's a serious question and @YAppelbaum has just made a compelling case for impeachment in @theatlantic.

But, for now at least, I think the right answer is no.

(Thread.)
slate.com/news-and-polit…

Yoni lays out the moral, legal and strategic reasons for impeachment.

He's clarified my thinking and I am persuaded by many of the points. In particular, I think there is a clear moral and a plausible legal case for impeachment.

Do read his piece!
theatlantic.com/magazine/archi…

But it’s not enough for there to be a moral and legal case for impeaching Trump. For the task is not just to remove Trump from office; it is to ensure that Trumpism does not dominate American politics for the next decades.

To do so, we need to think strategically.

--> My two biggest concerns about impeachment are strategic:

1) I fear that impeachment would raise the likelihood of Trump getting reelected.
2) I fear that impeachment would raise the likelihood of Trumpism surviving Trump.

Let’s take these in turn.

1)There’s no way of knowing how impeachment would play out. It might focus everyone’s attention on Trump’s misdeeds and rob him of agency. Or it might give him a giant stage to keep trolling his opponents.

Impeachment thus amounts to rolling the dice. In whose interest is that?

That depends on the baseline. If you think Trump is likely to win re-election, it’s worth throwing the game into disarray.

But Democrats have a good chance of winning in 2020: Trump is unpopular, they won big in the mid-terms, and prediction markets are bearish on his prospects.

So this is the most simple strategic argument against impeachment: We currently stand a good chance of beating Trump. Trying to remove him before his term is up may well backfire, as it did with Clinton in ’99 (or Chavez in ’03 or Erdogan in ’16).

It ain’t worth the risk.

2) How would impeachment change the long-term trajectory of Trumpism?

It’s time for some game theory!

(No, it’s not. But I do have two basic scenarios for you.)

On the pessimistic scenario, the GOP stands by Trump. The Senate votes to acquit him along partisan lines. He gets to claim (falsely!) that he’s been exonerated. His hold over the party strengthens. His prospects at reelection might, too.

Disaster.

On the optimistic scenario, Trump’s popularity tanks. Many Senate Republicans cross the aisle. He is removed from office.

That’s great! Except… that it likely wouldn't happen… doesn’t prove Trumpism to be an electoral liability… and his supporters would hail him as a martyr.

We don’t just need to remove Trump; we need to kill Trumpism. The best way to do this is to inflict a crushing defeat on him in 2020.

It’s a narrow path across a steep ridge. We might make a wrong step and fall into the abyss. But at least we have a clear destination in mind.

--> Anybody who retains hope of making the American political project succeed has to base their actions on some theory of how to accomplish the larger goal of containing authoritarian populism. Dealing Trump a decisive loss in 2020 is one such theory. Impeaching him is not.

Does this mean we should let Trump do what he wants?

Of course not! The House should investigate him, demand his tax returns and make him testify. It might find facts that necessitate impeachment and make it more likely to succeed.

But, for now, impeachment is premature.

The article has lots more arguments and historical examples backing up my case. I’m sure many of you will disagree. Please share the piece, and let’s get the debate started!

(END.)

slate.com/news-and-polit…