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What are EU27 thinking right now and how will they react? My guess (and thread):
1) Consistency: Unless HMG makes a formal request for a renegotiation, EU line (the best offer is already on the table and there will be no renegotiation) is unlikely to change. No formal UK request, no formal EU27 answer. PM due to speak to Juncker today..
2) Further talks possible: but not at any cost. There will be conditions:
- Detailed UK proposals
- Feasibility of UK proposals
- Reassurance that it will actually make a difference
- Timing
- Detailed UK proposals
- Feasibility of UK proposals
- Reassurance that it will actually make a difference
- Timing
3) Detailed UK proposals: UK will need more than a vision, it will need to present a plan.
4) Feasibility of UK proposals: Can it work? Removing the backstop is a no go. But adding protocol could be a possibility? Either way, half-baked plan won't work. See Michel Barnier: UK needs to put forward 'positive proposals': news.sky.com/story/michel-b…
5) Reassurance: Will further talks make a difference in Westminster? Wd it secure broad support in the House of Commons? EU27 have important elections. Giving into Britain’s Eurosceptic flank *alone* wd not be a good look..
6) Timing: Do we need more time? If so, UK must make a formal request (and be ready to answer EU27 questions: how long for? and what do you hope to achieve?). Confused? I can help: instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/what-woul…
7) Reality: But there may be limits to what EU can do. Many in EU believe British MPs problems would be best resolved as part of future trade talks, not renegotiation of the withdrawal agreement. More likely to support changes to the political declaration.
8) Reality 2: UK will need to convince EU27 that re-opening talks is a price worth paying. Reminder..
9) Approach: UK not only needs to know what it wants (substance), but also communicate its proposals effectively & constructively (style). Confused, I can help: thetimes.co.uk/article/theres…
