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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
truly fascinating - leading Leave campaigner supportive of German economists report arguing for customs union between UK and EU...which suggests the European Commission negotiated joint trade deals for UK, and the ECJ “continues to supervise all law and policy making” over trade
Here’s what the German Ifo economists are suggesting:

And here’s the full report that seems to be getting a lot of backing from Leave lobbyists today, actually very similar to Labour Brexit policy. Who’d have thought it?
econpol.eu/sites/default/…
There is a chance, pifflingly small I’m sure, that some of the people excitedly commanding the media to report this glistening new development in German thinking, have not actually read the report, which basically backs the idea of a customs union of equals, ECJ jurisdiction etc.
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
Beyond Ford’s warning to PM that they were already activating the next steps in Brexit production relocation, other business leaders on call asked the PM

-to extend Article 50,
- fund No Deal stimulus package
-asked why she wouldn’t unilaterally revoke A50
-extend by a year
One Business lobby leader asked the PM directly “Is there any evidence we can provide to change your stance on the Customs Union?”

The PM responded that the Government wants an independent trade policy and that there’s no Parliamentary majority for a customs union...
more where this come from - for now but on Ford - msg should not have come as a surprise - they make engines here to be put in European cars/vans in Cologne and Turkey...

What is UK’s trading relationship with Turkey (currently in Customs Union) going to be on 30/3/19?
Read 5 tweets
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
PM in Corbyn letter wrote Political Declaration delivers on “benefits of a customs union” incl no rules of origin checks.

But this part P23 refers specifically only to “single customs territory” -the backstop.

Backstop being “replaced” (Brady) at same time as banked for future.
... but that has not been negotiated yet - ie the very crucial issue of the application of rules of origin settled only for backstop.

The PM can not claim to have settled the issue to both Corbyn & manufacturers, when it is specifically only currently linked to backstop.
This is obviously the same issue that @anguswalkertalk heard Olly Robbins chatting about - ie the backstop as “bridge”. It is also the same specific issue Raab resigned over... it leaves us here:
Read 6 tweets
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
This week’s Brexit motion - the promise of which staved off ministerial resignations - will seek to reaffirm support for Govt re changes to backstop and recognise negotiations are ongoing. Will commit to further amendable motion by Feb 27 if Meaningful Vote has not been passed
It does not commit to a meaningful vote at any time. Merely says if not, then they’ll lay another motion.

Indeed can see no way MV second go is passed this month given Government will still claim there’s an ongoing process culminating in promised further meeting with Juncker
Calculation here is that anti-No Deal ministers willing to give PM & Barclay another 16 of the remaining 47 days to get legally binding changes to the WA/backstop that the PM has asked for every month since December, & have to date been rejected...
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

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David M. Herszenhorn
@herszenhorn
Amid reports that #UK PM @theresa_may hopes to renegotiate the "backstop" provision on the Northern Ireland border, let's recall that she already made clear what she wants in her letter to #EU leaders before disastrously losing the #Brexit Withdrawal Treaty ratification vote. 1/
"This could be mitigated by changes to the backstop itself," she wrote to @eucopresident & @JunckerEU "Proposals for a way in which the UK could choose to exit the backstop unilaterally were it ever to come into force, or for a hard time limit... 2/
on the duration of the usage of the backstop, have been raised and discussed in Parliament. We have also raised them previously in negotiations." So there are her proposals, i.e. the EU should basically just cave on backstop in face of House of Commons defeat. But but but ... 3/
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EFTA 4 UK
@EFTA4UK
1. With Corbyn saying this, there is now no viable chain of events that leads to #Remain 🇪🇺 so pro-eu campaigners must now put all their efforts into EFTA/EEA.
2. EFTA/EEA gives both leavers and remainers a big chunk of what they want - a settlement the British public can live with.
3. Despite some miscommunication and misinterpretation by commentators this option would not require a permanent customs union. However there would likely need to be an interim cu while necessary agreements, systems put in place and training is carried out.
Read 6 tweets
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Ian Dunt
@IanDunt
"One of the difficulties about the govt's approach to negotiation to date is they've been unwilling in testing the EU's stance on anything, with the possible exception of money."
I see David Davis is currently on Radio 4 attacking his own record as Brexit secretary.
What kind of ludicrous post-truth bonanza is this. We were there David. We remember you being Brexit secretary and catastrophically fucking it up.
Just extraordinary. We watched him fail, over and over again. in govt. And now he turns around and get to be the opposition to his own inadequacies.
Read 11 tweets
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Sydney Nash
@NashSGC
Don’t know which Europeans Mr. Hannan is speaking to but I haven’t met anyone in Brussels or in EU capitals who is unhappy with the Commission approach & I’ve spoken to a lot of them. #Brexit
In addition, no-one in the #EU is threatening the UK (I wld challenge Hannan to point to one threat that has come from a leading EU politician or negotiator), nor are they stopping the UK from leaving. #Brexit
The EU have been clear from the start that there are many trade models available to the UK & the UK have ruled most of them out. If it feels like the UK has little room for manoeuvre it is because the government painted itself into a corner. #Brexit
Read 17 tweets
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Steve Herman
@W7VOA
#UK Foreign Secretary @BorisJohnson has resigned, according to @10DowningStreet.
"His replacement will be announced shortly," @10DowningStreet spokesman says.
More on the @BorisJohnson resignation:
Read 15 tweets
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
1. A thread on #trade and aid.

One of the first tangible benefits of #Brexit I've seen is the emerging reform of @DFID_UK where it is becoming more of an arm of trade policy than a state owned humanitarian NGO. I would like that to go much further and rethink trade.
2. I do not think we should be wasting too much effort on free trade deals largely because they are of questionable value and encourage inefficient value chains. Any work on tariffs should really be reserved for multilateral activity.
3. Instead we need DfID as the spearhead of our trade policy. There is no reason why we cannot pursue humanitarian goals and enhance our trade while we are at it. For a start we can do a lot with medicines and pharmacy products.
Read 21 tweets

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