Thread by @APHClarkson

Difficult to avoid the impression that both Remainer leaders as well as ERG Brexiters ignore the realities of Brexit transitions that will most certainly have to be extended beyond 2021 because they are inconvenient to the tone of their respective campaigns

Neither Remainers nor Brexiters seem psychologically prepared for transitions to 2020, 2022, heck probably 2027 during which the British state enforces EU laws over whose formulation the UK parliament will have no influence

We've all spent months frantically arguing about a UK-friendly backstop that will probably not kick in and no time discussing years and years of transition that subordinates the UK which most certainly will kick in

At some point we need to cut to the chase. Whatever claims about an end date to the two transition periods made now are not worth a damn.

When faced with the choice between falling into the backstop and asking for more extensions the UK government will request the latter.

And since the EU loses nothing by keeping the UK in transition conditions that fully integrate it in the Single Market but only give a choice between receiving the latest EU laws by email or fax, the EU27 (or 28 if North Macedonia is in by then) will be fine with that

The idea of 2021 as an end date to Brexit transition for the UK is spurious to put it politely. Once the UK is locked into transition it is in for the long haul, possibly until the end of the next EU MFF cycle in 2027.

The Brexit future is 202X

For Remainers to admit that in everyday life nothing changes in transition would take the sense of urgency they need to topple May's Deal.

For Brexiters to admit transition is needed would be to admit a UK dependence on the EU that fundamentally contradicts their beliefs

No one in the UK seems able to come to terms with the first rule of European politics:

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| TROIKA |
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| WINS |
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