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In an effort to show why it is hard to explain what's happening #Brexit wise in UK at the moment, I made some slightly whimsical opening remarks to the @IIEA #CountdowntoBrexit event today.
They are the ‘Illogical Truths’ of Brexit.
(to be taken with a dash of salt 🧂)
1/6
They are the ‘Illogical Truths’ of Brexit.
(to be taken with a dash of salt 🧂)
1/6
1. The UK has not yet come to terms with leaving the EU.
It hasn't got to grips with nature of the other side (despite being there 40+yrs).
Nor with the process (e.g. future negos still to come).
& it hasn't come to terms with consequences of leaving (e.g. border controls).
2/6
It hasn't got to grips with nature of the other side (despite being there 40+yrs).
Nor with the process (e.g. future negos still to come).
& it hasn't come to terms with consequences of leaving (e.g. border controls).
2/6
2. The #backstop per se is not The Problem, but the sheer fact that it is a compromise.
And a compromise is inevitable.
Plus backstop is rarely discussed in light of NI/IRL needs but in terms of what it means for future UK-EU rel'ship - which it is not intended to determine.
3/6
And a compromise is inevitable.
Plus backstop is rarely discussed in light of NI/IRL needs but in terms of what it means for future UK-EU rel'ship - which it is not intended to determine.
3/6
& note already in the Protocol is:
- UK decision whether to implement #backstop prior to end '22;
- binding obligation to look for alternatives to it;
- a means of amending Protocol <4 yrs after transition ends;
- a review mechanism that can be triggered unilaterally by UK
4/6
- UK decision whether to implement #backstop prior to end '22;
- binding obligation to look for alternatives to it;
- a means of amending Protocol <4 yrs after transition ends;
- a review mechanism that can be triggered unilaterally by UK
4/6
3. The prospect of Art50 extension is seen by some as worse than No Deal.
An extension wd give grist to both Brexiteers & Remainers, making acceptance of compromise unlikely.
29 March deadline is most concrete thing May has, & it is having to work in lieu of decisiveness.
5/6
An extension wd give grist to both Brexiteers & Remainers, making acceptance of compromise unlikely.
29 March deadline is most concrete thing May has, & it is having to work in lieu of decisiveness.
5/6
4. Even as May is placating hardliners, she will rely on Labour MPs to deliver #Brexit.
ERG won't want 'blame' for final deal.
It'll be ‘responsible’ politicians who grasp the nettle of a deal instead of no deal.
Brexit could yet be delivered by those who want it the least.
6/6
ERG won't want 'blame' for final deal.
It'll be ‘responsible’ politicians who grasp the nettle of a deal instead of no deal.
Brexit could yet be delivered by those who want it the least.
6/6
