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So Amazon isn't coming to New York. Is this a good thing or a bad thing? Let me tell you a secret: NOBODY KNOWS 1/
The crude argument for the deal – Amazon would bring jobs! – is basically stupid. New York in general and Queens in particular have very low unemployment by historical standards, so any job creation would mainly involve bringing in more people 2/ 
These additional people would add to the city economy, but also receive salaries. So where's the net gain? Well, they would pay taxes – and NYC has high marginal tax rates, so that's a fairly big deal 3/
They would also expand the (already huge) pool of skilled labor and strengthen the (already huge) information spillovers, so the positive externalities of New York's size would grow. But ... 4/
New York also has huge negative externalities. Traffic congestion costs the average resident of Queens $1500 a year 5/ pfnyc.org/wp-content/upl…
I haven't found a standard estimate of the social costs imposed by adding another commuter to NY streets, but they have to be in the thousands, probably tens of thousands of dollars 6/
And there's some social cost to adding more high-paid workers to a housing market that already prices out middle- and lower-income workers. The right answer is less NIMBYism and more housing, but that will take time 7/
So put it all together and the best bet is that Amazon would have a significant effect on the welfare of NY residents -- but whether it's significantly positive or significantly negative is really anyone's guess 8/
The question then is whether you should invest large sums in tax breaks so that you get to roll the dice on positive versus negative externalities. Doesn't sound like great policy to me 9/
