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AMISOM Commanders say they have reached a consensus on military operations in Somalia (statement attached). Here is my take. amisom-au.org/2019/02/amisom…
AMISOM has released a new statement on possible new military activities against Al-Shabaab while committing to phased, conditions-based withdrawal of troops. This strategy needs more clarity: Is AMISOM committed to removing Al-Shabaab from new areas and holding these territories?
Will these news operations just be limited to air attacks supported by intelligence-led occasional ground operations? What does this mean the new operation given that AMISOM is expected to withdraw 1000 soldiers from Middle Shabelle region this month according to local officials
If this involves new offensive, then this may require troop increase because of the size of the areas in countryside under Al-Shabaab. Could this complicate success of operations if withdrawal takes place as reported.
If operations are limited to “targeted operations”, how realistic that this is going to help govt expand its authority to the rest of the country? The main encouraging step in this strategy is that AMISOM will hand over urban cities to Govt soldiers.
Handing over urban areas should have happened 6/7 yrs ago when AS lost Mogadishu, Kismayo, other towns. Instead of taking on AS in countryside, AMISOM confined itself to urban areas. AMISOM pulled back from forward bases -Jannaale, Leego, El-Adde, Tiyeglow,El-Bur after AS attacks
One key Q is whether AMISOM will directly involve Somali forces in these operations. The best training Somali forces can have id by doing it practically. There is a strong backbone and good military officers in Somali military ranks who will certainly want to take lead role.
AS will most likely pull back, safe men. So, the main, hard lesson AMISOM and Somali forces should learn from previous operations is whether they will diminish AS power and capability rather than take towns, routes. If and how AMISOM is going to achieve this isn’t in the strategy
