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What's really scary is that intelligence work is broadly similar to journalism. Almost nobody predicted the fall of the Soviet Union. ... among other things.
The Rise of ISIS, the Arab Spring, Brexit, the Defeat of Hillary. Who saw them coming? But they can see global warming plain enough to spend a trillion dollars on it.
Instead of betting on predictions we should buy insurance. Build up the design margin. Save instead of hoaxing ourselves with a fake space alien invasion we'll fight with deficit spending. But we're all so sure of our predictions. So sure.
