Thread by @wiiw_news

Today we release our annual @wiiw_news Autumn #Forecast Report, with macroeconomic projections for #CESEE out to 2020. Below, a thread on the highlights 1/13

#Growth still looks quite good for most, notable upgrades this time for #Poland, #Serbia, #Hungary. But downgrades for several #EU members, plus #Turkey, #Macedonia and #Belarus. 2/13

Over the #forecast period we expect best growth performance in #EUCEE and #WesternBalkans, although both will slow by 2020. Outlook for #CIS & #Ukraine weaker. 3/13

The two biggest economies in the region, #Russia and #Turkey, are also the ones with biggest problems. But Turkey will bounce back by 2020, while MT outlook for Russia is bleak. 4/13

Main growth drivers will be private #consumption (supported by strong #wage growth & #credit) and #investment (high capacity utilisation, #EU #funds, low #interestrates). 5/13

No big overheating worries, thanks to #policy responses in #Turkey and #Romania. But keep an eye on #labour markets, RER, external #debt and property #prices, especially in #EUCEE. 6/13

#Inflation is surprisingly low, especially in #EUCEE and #WesternBalkans. Potential reasons are higher savings rate and stronger remittance outflows. 7/13

Although things still look good, the global environment has deteriorated this year. Main drivers of demand for #CESEE #exports (#Eurozone, #Canada, #UnitedStates) will all slow next year. 8/13

#Eurozone slowdown is a particular issue from #CESEE perspective – main source of #investment, #remittances and #export demand. 9/13

Meanwhile now substantial downside risks to the outlook. In particular we are worried about #eurozone #crisis, wider global #TradeWar, and smaller post-#Brexit #EUBudget. 10/13

Additional concern is potential for further decline in #capacity and/or #independence of #institutions & #RuleOfLaw. 11/13

Main positive risk is that tight #labour markets and higher #wages stimulate #investment in #productivity-enhancing #capital upgrading, including #automation. 12/13

To sum up – current #growth rates are still good, and for many the outlook up to 2020 is ok. But growth will slow from here, and downside risks have increased considerably.
Find our report here: wiiw.ac.at/strong-growth-… 13/13 (ends).

Sorry for the typo, should be #China instead of #Canada
#erratum