Thread by @DmitryOpines

1/ "Can't the UK and EU do a quick FTA to keep tariffs at 0% while they sort out the future relationship?"

It's not an unreasonable question. Intuitively it feels like a WTO legal a quick fix that solves a lot of problems.

Unfortunately, it's not and it doesn't.

2/ First, why is not a quick fix?

Well, let's say you start with a simple agreement that says all tariffs stay 0% both ways.

That's easy to write. @Lorand_Bartels famously threw it together over lunch.

... but as a government, you want more assurances.

3/ With tariffs at 0%, you want assurances that the EU/UK won't use standards and regulations to lock you out of their market. A 0% tariff is no good if TBT's mean you don't REALLY have access.

So, you'll need to agree a TBT Chapter (like Chapter 4 of CETA).

4/ Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures are equally problematic, potentially. If every cow you send has to get a 400 euro vet check, they stop being competitive.

Better negotiate an SPS Chapter (like Chapter 5 of CETA).

5/ What kind of hoops will customs make products jump through now that it's two seperate systems? Even with tariffs at 0%, there's plenty HMRC/EU Equivalents can do to mess with trade.

Should do a Trade Facilitation/Customs Chapter (like Chapter 6 of CETA).

6/ If you're going to throw open your borders to the goods of others at 0% tariffs, you need some pretty strong assurances they're not going to use subsidies to take advantage.

A Subsidies Chapter is a must (like Chapter 7 of CETA).

7/ A cartel or state monopoly can really ruin your trader's day, so you'd be wise to negotiate a Competition Policy/State Enterprises Chapter (Chapters 17 and 18 of CETA).

8/ You might be able to skip having Labor, Environment or Sustainable Development Chapters in a quicky FTA (CETA 22, 23 and 24) but you never know how 'temporary' this FTA is going to be so you may also want them in there.

9/ What constitutes a "UK Good" or "EU Good" under your FTA? If a Chinese car gets shipped to Germany for a final paint job, does that make it German?

You don't think so, which is why you're going to need Rules of Origin (like Protocol in Annex 30-D of CETA).

10/ This whole thing is looking a bit complex now, and there's lots of room for potentially conflicting interpretations of various provisions. What are you going to do when that happens?

Why, whatever it says in the Dispute Settlement Chapter (like Chapter 29 of CETA).

11/ I swear to god all of the above is just the tip of the iceberg, and most of it you really can't do without. There's a REASON these FTAs take years and it's not because negotiators love sitting in windowless rooms arguing about comma placement.

Shit's hard, yo.

12/ But let's say you could smash it out somehow... it still doesn't solve much.

Tariff elimination would certainly help the select sectors like lamb and beef where the EU has tariff peaks, but proving compliance with an FTA actually takes MORE paperwork than just WTO tariffs.

13/ EU and UK businesses would still find their supply chains significantly slowed down and their paperwork needs rising exponentially.

The brilliant @AnnaJerzewska has written extensively on this.

14/ Because the paperwork requirements are still there, tariff elimination doesn't really solve the problem of Northern Ireland. This is something both sides are likely to consider.

15/ Obviously a tariff-only FTA would also only cover tariffs, not services, investment or gov procurement (with disruption for those sectors).

It's not clear how much either side wants to begin contentious negotiations by putting all goods access on the table as a freebie.

16/ So, in summary, a 'quick fix' goods only FTA likely wouldn't be either particularly quick or much of a fix.

This is probably why it's being pushed as a panacea by professional BBC news panel bores and not by trade policy professionals or the governments of either side. /end

17/ Note: I know didn't mention a tonne of other things. For example, how you'll handle trade remedies. How you'll handle one another's FTA's with 3rd parties and goods made through them. etc. etc.

Don't @ me trade nerds, it was already too a long thread.