Thread by @thomasdolphin

Cognitive dissonance can explain some of the difficulty Remainers have convincing Leavers of how damaging Brexit will be.

Humans find it hard to hold conflicting ideas in their heads. It creates dissonance or tension which needs to be resolved one way or another.
1/12

One strongly-held and deeply-seated concept people have is their self image, which usually has positive things in it, including something like “I am sensible, worldly-wise and not easily fooled”.

Self-image comes about over years and is deeply-rooted in our minds.
2/x

Similarly we all have frameworks through which we interpret the world, and affect how we process events and news. Things that match our frames gel nicely; things that don’t will be rejected.
@GeorgeLakoff writes about this so well in “Don’t Think Of An Elephant”.
3/x

Presenting someone with a “debunking” fact that (implicitly or explicitly) includes the idea of “you were fooled into believing X” clashes with their self-image as someone sensible and rational.
They can either change their deeply-seated self-image... or reject the new fact.
4/x

The cognitive dissonance btwn the debunking fact and self-image needs resolving; the brain usually takes the easy way out.

Attempts to debunk usually just reinforce the false idea in the mind of the person who posted it. @jamesrbuk covers this well in his book “Post Truth”
5/x

There’s also an element of face-saving; if you think you’ve won a conversation or argument, you’ve probably actually lost it, because the embarrassment of being proven wrong or brow-beaten into submission is not going to win their hearts or minds.
6/x

So how do you persuade people with hard-set views? @juliegirling is right; some people will never change their minds - that goes for Remainers as much as Leavers (if honest, it probably applies to me on the topic of Brexit).
But some will be persuadable.
7/x

Focusing on facts/debunking is not likely to be useful.
Cognitive dissonance means they’ll prob reject facts that clash with their world view and/or self-image, unconsciously and automatically. It’s not because they’re bad or stupid; it’s just how everyone’s brain works.
8/x

Leave didn’t win the EU referendum with facts but by offering emotional Rorschach blots so that people could vote for whatever positive Brexit they could envisage in their heads. Dissonant facts don’t get much purchase on this smooth bubble of wishfulness.
9/x

You need a self-sustaining, consistent, positive message on the EU.
eg The EU is good for health: it provides a flow of cheap medicines, trained workers to fill gaps, and researchers with funding, and it protects public health with food/air standards and disease tracking.
10/x

This doesn’t contradict Leave narratives about sovereignty or immigration; it simply focuses on good things that come from the EU.
Keep it positive, don’t tell people they were wrong in 2016 or now, and accept that they sincerely believed in whatever Brexit they voted for!

11/x

I suspect others will have much better suggested narratives to put forward, and apologies to @jamesrbuk and @GeorgeLakoff for *massively* oversimplifying their points.
If you want to suggest a better narrative or frame to use for changing Leavers’ minds, please comment!
12/12

I have been reminded that we have to avoid framing the @peoplesvote_uk incorrectly as a second referendum on the same question as 2016. It’s not: that vote had an answer which triggered negotiations, and now we want a People’s Vote to confirm or reject what has come from that.