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Interesting piece here. The only calculus now for the government is: how many ERG MPs would rather have a ‘vassal-state’ backstop (ie approve May’s deal) over extension/referendum, and how many Labour MPs will take May’s deal when she has given them absolutely nothing in return?
For either side approving May’s deal is a humiliation. Hard Brexiters have determined that May’s deal is not Brexit and not what they voted for, because it keeps us in the customs union and removes all our oversight, and involves £39bn for nothing in return. How can they endorse?
ERG that vote for deal will perhaps say ‘at least we leave’. But don’t underestimate what good Communists Mogg et al are. Could be strongly tempted to vote against May’s deal and risk Remain to become martyrs and say Brexit would have been a success if only it had been tried
Many ERG have realised, belatedly, that often in life the worst possible result is to get what you want. Why would they want to own their total failure? Much better to have failure imposed on them and pretend they could have won than fail and have to take some responsibility
Then there’s the DUP. Why would they ever endorse a deal that places a regulatory border in the Irish Sea? How many would rather risk Remain? And how many ERG allies who’ve pledged DUP solidarity will endorse May’s deal if they remain opposed to it?
And then Labour. What’s in it for MPs to back May if she can’t even commit to customs union? Not only is it unalloyed surrender to a hated gov, not only is it facilitating wildly unpopular deal, but it’s bringing fire extinguisher to a Tory party that’s set itself alight. Why?
