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Edwin Hayward🦄🏹🗡️
@uk_domain_names
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Gina Miller may be about to throw another spanner into the Brexit works, by demonstrating the legal basis for the EU to extend Article 50 unilaterally on the grounds that a chaotic Brexit is too damaging for them. Go get 'em, Gina! ⁦@thatginamiller⁩ theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
One way to think of it: we want to demolish a semi-detached house with high explosive. Our neighbours on the other side of the party wall are understandably alarmed at the notion. So they seek a legal injunction to force us to pause the demolition until we can do it more safely.
They're not preventing us from demolishing our own place if we really, really want to, but merely stopping us from taking the supporting walls they share down with it. Once we have a more workable demolition plan, the project can proceed.
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More from @uk_domain_names see all

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Edwin Hayward🦄🏹🗡️
@uk_domain_names
I've taken a very candid look at Brexit already on many occasions. Now it's time to turn the spotlight on what revoking Article 50 and staying in the EU would be like in practice. No holds barred.
Let's get the legal stuff out of the way first. The UK has an absolute right to unilaterally revoke Article 50 any time. The EU can only block the request if it's insincere. In other words, we can't fake-cancel Brexit then restart the process a few days later. We have to mean it.
If we did cancel Brexit, we would be entitled to stay in the EU under our existing membership conditions. We will retain all our vetoes, rebates, special dispensations etc. That too is a matter of law.
Read 35 tweets
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Edwin Hayward🦄🏹🗡️
@uk_domain_names
Remember yesterday's "Bribes for Brexit" scandal, in which Theresa May tried to buy Labour votes for her deal in exchange for £1.6 billion in funding for poorer areas? Now they won't even publish which towns would get the money...
thetimes.co.uk/article/d0329b…
Presumably the "logic" is that, if the money isn't specifically seen in advance to be going to Area X, then the MP of Area X can vote for TM's frankendeal without nakedly being bribed. Rubbish logic, of course, like all things Brexit-related, but I imagine that's the sequence.
Oh, and just as a refresher: the same areas that would be getting the £1.6 billion currently benefit from over £10 billion in EU regional development funding. So it's not a generous ploy by our benevolent Government, but a massive punch in the face disguised as something else.
Read 4 tweets
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Edwin Hayward🦄🏹🗡️
@uk_domain_names
A 21-month Article 50 extension seems like it could maybe be on the cards.

PROS
- Puts paid to no-deal danger for a long time
- Allows for A50 revocation (which transition would not)
- Gives measure of stability to businesses (but see CONS below)
- Gives time for a People's Vote
- Gives time for a General Election
- Gives time for Brexit preparedness, including proper scrutiny of the necessary laws
- May allow criminal court cases against Leave to complete
- May enable EU to complete additional trade deals (and full benefits of Japan/Canada to kick in)
CONS
- Prolongs uncertainty (will we see variants of TM's deal again and again and again)
- Likely to bring a change of PM (if you think that's good, imagine a hard Brexiter in charge of negotiations!)
- May go beyond Speaker's term
- Doesn't actually resolve anything
Read 4 tweets

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Matthias Eberl 🇪🇺
@eberlmat
Was.
"Sunlit uplands."

Then.
"It's not going to be a Mad Max dystopia."

Now.
"Actually, it's going to be a Mad Max dystopia but it's the fault of businesses and individuals."

#Brexit
"The UK economy would be 6.3-9% smaller in the long term in a no deal scenario (after around 15 years) than it otherwise would have been when compared with today’s arrangements, assuming no action is taken."
"HMRC has estimated that the administrative burden on businesses from customs declarations alone, on current (2016) UK-EU trade in goods could be around £13bn p.a. (not accounting for any behavioural change)."
Read 23 tweets
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU watching Westminster closely this week but not rushing to any
conclusions. Here is some of the key thinking in European capitals on
the main #Brexit issues of the day: /1
On Labour/second referendum: Corbyn seen in Europe as convinced
eurosceptic so EU is sceptical of his backing a second referendum. EU
has watched #Brexit turmoil long enough to see huge complications in
holding the vote and realise many leave voters have changed their
mind. /2
Of course EU would still rather UK stayed but Europe's leaders don't
see this as realistically on the cards right now. Most realistic,
considering turmoil in Westminster, says EU council President Tusk:
would be to extend article 50 leaving process. /3
Read 11 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
So the #brexit debate is still fogged by confused and wishful thinking.

Here's what I think I know, after chats with both sides. 1/Thread
Let's start with the negotiation in Brussels where @Geoffrey_Cox is trying to secure enough changes to the backstop to change his legal advice that the Irish backstop is a potentially permanent trap.

There was a reason he didn't make his promised speech last week... /2
@Geoffrey_Cox It's because he's struggling (and going to struggle) to get what the ERG wants: either a 'time-limit' or an 'exit mechanism' from the Irish backstop.

My understanding is that discussion is not on time limits, but on "elucidating" the exit-mechanism process/ 3
Read 20 tweets
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Lord Snoutintrough #FBPE
@Rowland72James
A constant refrain from my fellow remainers is name be a #Brexit benefit many devote immense energy writing detailed explanations of trade tarrifs or how the EU works. I am grateful to them as I have learned a lot from them yet we all wonder why it makes so little difference
It seems to me that a better question to leavers is what are you getting out of #Brexit why do you support it in the face of so much evidence that its a terrible idea and I would like to suggest the answer lies in the realms of feeling
We have all seen that #Brexit licenses all kinds of opinions that 1l0 years ago would have been unacceptable but more than that it licences BEHAVIOURS that usually are unacceptable and thus gives many adherents a immense pleasure
Read 25 tweets
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
The EU is in watch and wait mode but this is some of the thinking going on behind the scenes ahead of tonight’s vote in parliament #Brexit 1
EU leaders have no Plan B up their sleeve(s). They will only BEGIN to start talking together about a What Next after tonight’s vote 2
The EU sees no point in the PM flying out here this week if the #Brexit deal suffers a huge defeat today in parliament. EU leaders have nothing ready to say to her 3
Read 15 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
This @politicoeurope piece and infographic by @kbolongaro about the #Brexit and the ham and cheese sandwich has been widely retweeted.

Do read the whole piece - don't just rely on the infographic.

politico.eu/article/brexit…

1/15
But let's just say for a minute that, spurred on by national sandwich sentiment post a No Deal Brexit, the UK did want to make itself more self-sustaining in its food production, what could it do?

2/15
First some stats: Defra has useful stats on UK food import dependency here: gov.uk/government/sta…

The first Excel table shows how import dependency for food has been growing (the UK now imports 40% of its food), and the second Excel download lists value by food type.

3/15
Read 17 tweets

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