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Yesterday, the deadliest tornado event since the May 20th, 2013 Moore OK tornado occurred in Lee County, Alabama, with 23 fatalities. This is a horrible tragedy. I am dismayed, however, at the many hot takes flying around about this disaster and will be address a few here.
First, I want to walk through the forecasts issued for this particular event, as understanding the sequence of events and the outstanding work done by the NWS to forecast this particular outbreak is important to understanding the unique vulnerabilities of the Deep South.
@NWSSPC highlighted the potential of a severe weather event in the area as far back as Feb. 28, issuing a Slight Risk for severe weather on March 1, with the potential for tornadoes mentioned. This was upgraded to an Enhanced Risk around midday on March 2. 
The Enhanced Risk was specifically issued due to forecaster concerns for supercells forming outside of a squall line, in an environment favorable to tornadoes. Confidence was not present for an outbreak, but there was concern storms could be quite severe.
On the morning of the 3rd, though there were still uncertainty in the scale of the isolated supercell/tornado risk, the SPC mentioned that the environment in place was supportive of tornadoes if storms could form and began issuing products when it became clear they would.
The SPC began homing in on the threat with a Mesoscale Discussion issued at 1559z on the 3rd. Forecasters highlighted that isolated supercell development was underway across S AL, with the potential for strong tornadoes – a tornado watch was then issued at 1740z.
Another, small MD was issued for Lee County at 1828z for a supercell that formed and moved through the area, but did not produce a tornado in AL. A second MD was issued for the area at 1900z, as another strong, discrete supercell approached the tornado-primed environment.
The first tornado warning for the storm that would produce the Beauregard EF4 was issued west of Lee County at 1919z. the storm continued to develop and move east, with NWS Birmingham closely watching, until a warning was issued for Lee County at 1958z (1:58pm local time).
The warning was then updated at 2007z – the tornado had begun tossing debris into the air, showing up on radar, and prompting the NWS to confirm the tornado in the warning.
By 2009z, the extreme danger posed was clear – and the NWS issued a Tornado Emergency. Tornado Emergencies are exceedingly rare, only issued for the most catastrophic tornado events in populated areas. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_e…
Further updates to the Tornado Emergency were issued at 2015z and 2022z, as the EF4 tornado continued across the area. Motorists on US 280 caught the storm as it crossed the highway near Smiths Station around 2027z.
Throughout this warning, the Birmingham NWS office diligently updated its media and emergency management partners through NWSChat, a chatroom service for NWS Core Partners. These partners sounded the alarm on TV, radio, and through cell towers.
A second tornado formed to the west of Lee County around 2031z, with a tornado warning for this second storm issued at 2038z for Lee County. NWS forecasters issued first responders localized shelter and all-clear announcements as this second storm moved through.
The second tornado lifted around 2105z, just west of Smiths Station. Though rain would continue for some time after, the tornado threat had finally ended for Lee County, allowing first responders to conduct a massive search and rescue effort.
Overall – this was an incredibly well forecast event by the NWS. A severe threat was highlighted 4 days in advance by the SPC, and tornado warnings issued by NWS BMX had a roughly 9 minute lead time for a storm moving at over 60 mph. There were lives saved by these heroes.
This storm did not happen without warning, period. HOWEVER, this does not mean all those in the path received the information they needed to respond, or were even able to respond. This thread is already too long though - I'll break those down in another thread.
