Thread by @keiranpedley

THREAD. For those of you looking for something else to talk about other than Brexit, @IpsosMORI have some new polling out today on how close people feel to each of the main parties, what they think of TIG and where they stand on policy issues. Some edited highlights below...

1. On TIG, we find 25% are favourable, 27% are unfavourable and 48% have yet to form an opinion (neutral / don't know). Those favourable are most likely to be graduates & remainers with a good chunk of the 2017 Lib Dem vote approving of TIG but some fans in all party voter groups

2. Maybe it is not surprising that people have yet to make up their mind. They are not a party yet and only 15% are following the story VERY closely - though people have generally heard of them so that is something for TIG (& 1 in 4 are favourable already of course)

3. As mentioned, we also asked people how closely they think the main parties align with their views. Nothing sensational here but what we then did was run cross-breaks of those feeling close to different parties against where people stood on policy issues. Here it gets fun...

4. So we gave people 12 pairs of policy statements (full detail below) and asked whether they preferred A or B. Note - below is the full wording but charts are abbreviated for space. We then plotted different audiences based on their strength of feeling on each issue..

5. Let's start simply. Here we see overall the public are 'left' on some issues & 'right' on others. They lean towards nationalising utilities, strict action on the environment & anti war but also favour strict limits on immigration, reducing foreign aid & building more prisons

6. When we overlay those favourable towards TIG, we can see that TIG fans tend to be to the 'left' of the general public. Very pro Remain and more traditionally 'liberal' across a host of policy areas...

7. If you then overlay those 'not feeling close to any party' we see that the 'gap' not currently being served might actually be towards the right (at least in some areas) - they are quite conservative on issues like immigration, foreign aid and prisons...

8. Then when we overlay all parties the chart gets complex but there's lots of interesting nuance here (see UKIP and Con for eg or the Greens). But let's focus on TIG. Those fav towards TIG are closer to the left parties but that bit more 'centrist' overall

9. What we can also do is split party supporters by those fav towards TIG and those not. Here we see Lab supporters fav to TIG are more Remain and more open to military intervention abroad than those not favourable

10. Similarly on the Tory side, we see Tories favourable to TIG tend to be more open to globalisation and more in favour of strict policies on the environment than those Tories not favourable to TIG

So what have we learned?
- TIG has potential but the jury is out so far
- TIG fans tend to occupy the more liberal end of the spectrum on policy but they are that bit more centrist
- Those not feeling close to any party are more right wing on things like immigration /foreign aid

Full writeup and tables here:

ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-…

ENDS

Also a big thank you to @CameronGarrett_ for his invaluable help on this project. Give him a follow if you’re interested in our work on politics / public opinion!