Thread by @NvOndarza

The #Skripal case is very serious, and has the potential to become much more serious still. But it is also the first real test of UK position in foreign and security after #Brexit.

A balanced thread. /1

What’s missing after #Brexit?

Mainly the EU institutions. The UK briefed its allies inter alia via the EU’s Political & Security Committee, and @eucopresident put #Skripal on the agenda of next week’s #EUCO. /2

What’s different after #Brexit?

First, sanctions. While it is far from clear whether the EU will currently back up the UK on sanctions ag Russia, it is equally clear that any sanctions put forward by the UK wd be far more effective if adopted at EU level /3

Second, bilateral relations.

Current bi- and multilateral relations are embedded in joint EU & NATO membership. After #Brexit, UK will have to put much more effort into coordinating continiously with its European allies /4

Finally, what remains (largely) unchanged?

EU was obviously only one among many diplomatic channels used by the UK to confront Russia.

Equally if not more important was the NATO statement and UN Security Council session /5

Biggest question mark is over the transatlantic relationship.

The US support has been growing, but Trump has yet to come out as clearly in support of the UK as Tusk, Merkel or Macron (after today’s clarification). /6

In short: The UK still has a robust diplomatic network and support after #Brexit, but will be more limited in its tools.

It is cutting itself off from one of the channels to its European allies. Hence, the UK, but also the EU27 will need to invest more in bilateral exchange. /7

Finally, in face of a rising global powers competition and insecurities over the transatlantic relationship, neither the UK nor the EU27 can afford to sever ties over #Brexit.

/ends