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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Whatever a cabinet coup looks like it won't be a surprise if the PM fails to last the week. But who - and what - next?
This is untrue. It is no secret that potential Tory leadership candidates have been building up their campaigns.
Beyond the plot the important point - there is no perfect Brexit outcome which can suddenly be found by a new PM, and any new / interim / permanent leader has to be honest about this with the country.
This has of course always been the main problem with a potential plot against the PM. But this time may be different
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More from @DavidHenigUK see all

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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
I've been posting this Brexit options table for a few days now, but without any narrative. As we almost certainly approach indicative votes of some sort or other, what are the key messages MPs should know? 1/
Most obvious, as you move away from membership and associated 'costs' such as payments and freedom of movement, you lose certain access rights like decision making, selling services, frictionless trade, but gain access to your own trade deals. You can't have everything 2/
We also learn that any future relationship is not cut and dried. Most notably no off the shelf model can solve the Irish border problem, and the extent of access to / say in EU goods and services markets after Brexit would need to be negotiated 3/
Read 8 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
There's been lots of talk including from the PM of showing how the next phase of Brexit talks could be conducted differently if her deal passes, to help it do so. Yet no real proposals. How difficult would that have been?
We are left to conclude the PM has no intention of doing anything differently, in which case the suggestion otherwise is actually counter-productive. She thinks her way was perfect, or perhaps doesn't want to admit the deal doesn't provide the certainty she claimed it did?
So we now see the PM practically begging MPs to pass her deal, but only for the certainty of kicking the can into the next phase, having left the EU. Not helped by those saying her deal might be ok without her, which also makes little actual sense.
Read 3 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
My most minority Brexit view. When the EU say the Withdrawal Agreement can't be changed this is shorthand for not changing the Irish backstop without the UK changing red lines. It is not to be taken literally of the entire text.
Of course since the UK subsequently burned all negotiating capital in trying to change the Irish backstop without changing red lines, it is probably literally the case for the moment that the WA will not change. But that is not the same as saying it couldn't happen.
My more familiar lament is that since hardly anyone has read the whole Withdrawal Agreement, still less analysed what it means, we are several months after it was unveiled not particularly the wiser. Which is typical of our lax approach thus far to negotiations.
Read 3 tweets

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Sergio Graziosi
@GraziosiSergio
What the hell is @jeremycorbyn doing?
Why is he enabling #Tory #Brexit?
Is this the final betrayal?
No, it isn't.
It's the predicted effect of decisions taken 2-3 years ago. All things considered, it's not as bad as it could have been (thanks to #StopBrexit crowd).

Thread.
1/n
To understand why, I need to outline 2 important mechanisms that most people, politicians and commentators seem to ignore, dismiss or simply don't get. They have different and somewhat opposite consequences, but are both decisive in the current & foreseeable predicaments.
2/n
1st and foremost: the biggest constraint that applies to political decision-making comes from the past decisions & policies.
It is a massive constraint.
Cameron COULD NOT convincingly campaign for #Remain, because his own policies CREATED the discontent channelled by #Leave.
3/n
Read 23 tweets
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J Michael Waller ❌
@JMichaelWaller
1) #Coup: As the #Venezuela crisis unfolds, sovereign people are wise to follow the time-tested advice of the great Edward Luttwak, from his classic, Coup d'Etat: A Practical Handbook (Harvard, 1968, revised 2016). This thread will guide you through the best points of the book.
2) #Coup: "The power of the modern state largely depends on [the] permanent machinery [of bureaucracy and armed forces], which, with its archives, files, records, and officials, can control intimately the activities of lesser organizations and individuals." (2016 edition, p. 1)
3) #Coup: Bureaucracies have features necessary for a coup: "the emergence of clear distinctions between the permanent machinery of state and the political leadership, and the fact that state bureaucracies have structured hierarchies with definite chains of command." (1-2)
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Damo #GTTO
@Cornish_Damo
Tory Racism - a thread. Not just any ordinary Tory though. Sure most parties have bad elements to deal with, but everyone in this list aspires to national or local leadership. Ask yourself, if the leaders are like this, what reflection is that of the whole party? #GetTheToriesOut
In 1989 David Cameron, fresh from making hang Mandela T-shirts, was given a paid-for jolly to South Africa, by a group lobbying for the apartheid sanctions to be lifted. He eventually apologised for this…17 years later. #GetTheToriesOut
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Brexitshambles
@brexit_sham
#Tory conference on the horizon & the 'no deal' #Brexit vultures circle the carcass. All the usual suspects incl' Littlewood, Singham and @SteveBakerHW for the IEA. @isaby, @Jacob_Rees_Mogg, @DanielJHannan, @patel4witham, @andreajenkyns for @matthew_elliott's BrexitCentral......
Thick as thieves...... Hannan and Singham again, Bromund of 'Anglo-American Relations,' Steifel of the Cato Institute, for the Heritage Foundation. The IEA again, this time with Arlene Foster and Nigel Dodds of the #DUP.
Flies on a turd..... Elliott's infamous 'Tax Payers' Alliance,' with Priti Patel again, and, of course @LowTaxChloe. The Bruges Group, with Patel (again), Jenkyns (again) and @OwenPaterson.....
Read 4 tweets
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
PM in quite a pickle here.
Brexiter MPs glum about "endless backstop" being a backdoor sellout. Davis also unhappy unless time-limited.

But Backstop with time limit "is not a backstop" says Irish & EU.

More important: backstop "immensely important" for Tory Remainer rebels.
The prospect of the backstop was being used to reassure Tory Rebels not to rebel next week on the EU Withdrawal Bill, and to give the PM a clean bill to take with her to Brussels...
They were also led to believe it was signed off in Cabinet already
If she changes tack on this, Remainer Rebels will lose faith in reassurances on NI, and vote against Government next week.
If she does not, what will David Davids, Foreign Sec do?

It is either time limited or it is not. Unless this is Quantum Brexit.
Read 9 tweets
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Catherine Walsh
@gurriersread
#next, I need your #help, and I mean all of you #please, regardless of party-politics, ideological differences, geo-location, can I have your <3 engaged to help a family, friends, a local community & a student community in their #search for a #MissingPerson #missing since Nov.2nd
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