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As we enter a key Brexit endgame week, a few thoughts on the ironies of British negotiation. Thread:
1. The basic claim of bargaining theory is that you need a strong ‘reversion point,’ that you can go back to if bargaining fails. Once Article 50 was activated that was necessarily ‘No Deal’. But No Deal is likely self-damaging and certainly divisive in UK. So not credible.
2. One option in that case is to pretend you want something self-damaging – the ‘madman’ option. But if you do this you need to be believed to be ‘mad’ and strike a consistent message. You can’t do what May did and claim it to Remainers while claiming ‘No Brexit’ to Brexiteers.
3. And it would not have worked anyway because SO many British people (a) do not want it, and (b) would be very damaged by it. So what were other options for bargaining?
4. Another bargaining strategy is a ‘war of attrition’ – if you can afford to take on costs of bargaining longer than opponent you may wear them down. But this ran up against (a) invoking Article 50 and losing this possibility, and (b) desire of Leave voters to ‘get on with it’
5. A further option is to demonstrate how resolute you are in bargaining by ‘signalling’ your determination through some costly signals. But No Deal planning was left late and its cost (Seaborne) has been derided and mocked.
6. Or you could ‘divide and rule’ – and yet the UK has been far more torn internally than the EU 27 have been collectively. Which is an amazing achievement I suppose. But goes to show that bargaining off the basis of a narrow electoral win is foolhardy.
7. Finally you could make the best of your situation by employing experienced and cold-blooded negotiators – which is exactly what EU had been worried about. Instead May fired Ivan Rogers and David Davis wasted 2 years with minimal engagement.
8. And so we are where we are. A country that had long had a reputation for shrewd negotiation and pragmatic decisionmaking has… erm… acquired a new reputation.
Thoughts on this variously inspired by @chrisgreybrexit @drjennings @Sime0nStylites @simonjhix @anandMenon1
