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The US "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran has been marked by several major speeches, key sanctions dates and high-profile events like UNGA/UNSC and Warsaw Conference. But sometimes it's worth connecting the smaller dots [thread]:
2/ Key development in last few days has been US recognition of Israeli sovereignty in Golan Heights. Many elements to the decision, but both the proclamation and PM Netanyahu's statements explicitly cite Iran/Hizbollah presence in Syria as a consideration. bit.ly/2CCClzL
3 / The US Treasury, meanwhile, has rolled out more sanctions designations against an IRGC-linked $1b+ banking scheme & and 31 targets related to Iran's nuclear program. We are now close to 1000 total designations since Trump administration came to office. bit.ly/2TZP7TQ
4/ Treasury Dept also updated a maritime advisory by adding dozens of ships it says part of Iran's "Oil for Terror" shipments to the Assad government; since November when initial list was issued it appears that tankers have curtailed shipments into Syria. bit.ly/2FvtVuK
5/ In Iraq, which relies to a significant degree on Iranian energy imports, the administration extended Baghdad's sanctions waiver by 90 days - obviously not enough to change its infrastructure while keeping pressure on government to reduce Iranian supply. cnb.cx/2TOYk0X
6/ (Incidentally, Treasury U/S Mandelker currently on a tour of Malaysia/Singapore/India, where her brief includes Iran sanctions)
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7/ Then there's Secretary Pompeo's visit to Beirut, where he delivered a harsh line against "the dark ambitions of Iran and Hizbollah to dictate your future". Once again, Iran-US rivalry playing out across regional flashpoints. bit.ly/2FwU8Jr
8/8 As we approach one year since start of US maximum pressure, clear that Washington's approach is systematic as well as binary: allies must be supported, rivals must be curbed. But how effective it is in bringing Iran back to the table on US terms still very much uncertain.
