Thread by @HarunMaruf

Weeklong bombings in Mogadishu claimed the lives of 36 people. The Al-Shabab militant group claimed responsibility for all the attacks.
But experts and officials agree that if the Somali government wants to defeat Al-Shabab it will need a cohesive, strong and well equipped army.

On paper, Somalia has at least 30,000 forces enough to fight against Al-Shabab and takeover responsibilities from the African Union forces. But these forces still lack the resources and capacity to fight off the militant group according to a new study obtained by @i_dossier.

The new study, Operational Readiness Assessment (ORA) by AMISOM found that Jubbaland has 5715 forces, Galmudug 5,754, Southwest 3231. In Puntland study focused on police forces as the region already integrated forces with SNA. Study says Puntland has 5,248 regional police force.

A similar study conducted by the federal govt in December 2017, estimated that the number of federal Govt active soldiers to be 15,000, bringing the total number to nearly 35,000 excluding 5,248 police force in Puntland.

The new and previous studies have similarities: The new study says the regional forces “have the numbers, but lack the resources to efficiently and effectively fight Al-Shabaab”. It highlighted lack of heavy weaponry, mobility and other equipment to adequately fight Al-Shabab.

For instance in Jubbaland, logistics situations is said to be “below expectation”. Troops have weaponry but most camps lack mobility, and no tanks. Some soldiers do not have weapons at all. In one camp, there are 1586 personnel but almost half of them had no assault rifles.

In Southwest, the situation is described as “very precarious”. Military equipment were obsolete, while others lacked effective servicing.
Southwest forces are seriously under-resourced and ill-equipped according to the ORA assessment.

Galmudug regional forces have the heaviest weaponry including tanks and anti-tanks. But the assault rifles they have are not enough for the active force, according to the ORA conducted by AMISOM.

The main positive highlight in the new ORA study is that the regional forces have shown readiness to fight alongside the federal govt and AMISOM against Al-Shabab. Also about 95% of the regional forces are under the age of 51. In Jubbaland 85% of their forces are below 41 years.

ORA findings are strikingly similar to the 2017 study conducted at federal-level. The 2017 study found that approximately 30% of federal soldiers in the bases do not have weapons. It also said some units lack medium and heavy weaponry, and some are "undermanned."

Some of the main findings of the Operational Readiness Assessment (ORA) of Somali regional forces. Assessment was conducted between March 2018 and January 2019 by AMISOM