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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Great to have Tom Friedman wiring in Brexit and now appearing on British TV as it is a salutary reminder that the marriage of total confidence about a topic with bone headed ignorance about it is not something unique to the British political class
I remember many hours spent during my PhD days discussing the many obvious errors and sweeping, flat out wrong claims in the latest Friedman brain fart about the latest place he’d visited with those who actually knew stuff about it. Now Brexit Britain gets the Friedman treatment.
Should be “writing on” Brexit not “wiring in”, though the image of Friedman stabbing ineffectually at a complex Brexit circuit board is a good one
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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
There’s a by-Election in Newport West today. It will *probably* be a dull Lab hold but, like part by-elex it may spring a surprise. Some sources of uncertainty: 1. Seat had the same LT incumbent for over 30 yrs so we don’t know how voters will react to an open contest.
2. There is usually an anti-incumbent and/or anti-system dynamic in by-elex. 3. Voters are unusually volatile and unhappy with all mainstream parties 4. We have no idea how, if at all, ongoing Brexit crisis will impact on voter behaviour.
5. Both extremes of the political spectrum have high profile candidates standing. Ultra Brexit/nationalist/socially conservative voters have Neil Hamilton for UKIP; ultra-Remain/cosmopolitan/socially liberal have Amelia Womack (deputy leader of Greens)
Read 4 tweets
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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
Endless re-runs of these args about class show that a political system built around class divides for many decades finds it really hard to accommodate new electoral divides. Primary divides on PV, like practically everything in Brexit, are education and identity.
Working class graduates behave like middle class graduates. Working class school leavers behave like middle class school leavers. The critical Q to predict someone’s Brexit stance is not “what do you do?” Or “How much do you earn?” Its “Did you go to university?”
Very hard for parties and political analysts socialised into a class/economic framing for everything to get their heads around this though, so they gravitate constantly to explanations about how it is "really" class or economics that explains these new divides
Read 4 tweets
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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
I’m sure it’s a coincidence that this is exactly why she has to say in order to make the choice appear “my deal or no deal”, which is how MPs have to see it if she is going to secure the Lab votes needed to get it over the kind after “my deal or no Brexit” failed last week.
Problem for May is her credibility is shot to pieces with all Commons factions so will be hat to convince Labour MPs that she means business if she tries to make it “my deal or no deal”
Even harder if Cooper et al succeed in passing legally binding motion compelling govt not to leave with no deal
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Peri Hankey
@PeriHankey
We have reached the end of the road with this Tory disaster, this quantum of #Brexit created & destroyed by & for Tories, a Frankenstein Brexit which now should tear to pieces the party that made it. Schrödinger's Brexitstein Monster, the movie. But what should @UKLabour do now?
First, it is really important for all of us in every party to know what Brexiters & #TheresaMay hoped we never would know: we were able to trigger this #Brexit attempt to become independent because by the terms of the TEU we were in fact independent & free to use #Article50.
As @joannaccherry has insisted in Parliament (something also said almost in passing by Kenneth Clarke), we can #RevokeArticle50 now to avert a disastrous #NoDealBrexit. That doesn't have to be the end of Brexiter hopes. It gives us the time that we need to reflect & rethink.
Read 12 tweets
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Lord Snoutintrough #FBPE
@Rowland72James
#BREXIT craziness update so maybots deal is blown out of the water l. Similarly corbyns vote of no confidence fails and won't be backed by SNP and lib dems
Despite her #BREXIT deal being defeated by biggest margin a government has lost a vote ever maybot seeks concessions on backstop despite being told to bog off by the EU with no realistic hope of a different answer
Corbyn meanwhile refuses to talk #BREXIT without no deal being ruled out despite knowing she can't do this whilst maybot makes no concessions either.
Read 14 tweets
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Lord Snoutintrough #FBPE
@Rowland72James
As a new believer In #brexit I am especially convinced by the doctrine of Marxism lexitism
I see now that the British government has been prevented by the EU from implenting the European social model that exists in France Germany Sweden Denmark the Netherlands and many other EU member States
The EU is to blame for privatisation as is witnessed by the way other European countries retain nationalised industried
Read 16 tweets
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Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺
@nicktolhurst
1/ Small thread on Fish - hot topic of the day & cause of so many angy replies on my Timeline.
The big question: How can it be that an industry that has less full time employees than a village - circa 8 500 people - be so controversial?
How can this be driving our #Brexit future?
2/ first some context - not only does fishing (traditionally understood) employ barely a village - but this is not new.

UKs fishermen great decline happened post WWII but pre EEC.

In economic terms fishing is barely 0.1% of UK GDP!
gov.uk/government/sta… chap 1, table 1.2
3/ Next the UK imports much of the fish it eats & exports much of the fish it catches - there are complex reasons for this but a main one is taste.

Thats how trade works.

UK doesnt import fish "because of EU", it imports fish because it prefers to do so rather than eat its own.
Read 14 tweets
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Paul Chaplin #FBPE 🇪🇺
@CottlestonPie
I'm currently at this #Brexit conference in Copenhagen, where the British ambassador and several #DExEU officials will be on panels with representatives of Danish trade and security. It'll be very interesting to see what's said, especially in light of May's recent Munich speech.
And now that I'm not desperately trying to keep up with livetweeting it, I shall turn my mess of self-retweets into a proper thread. #Brexit #BrexitDK
acknowledges #Brexit will have challenges; emphasises no naïveté regarding "land of milk and honey". Refreshing sense of pragmatism; we'll see how #DExEU and DK reps present it.

#BrexitDK
Read 55 tweets

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