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There’s a by-Election in Newport West today. It will *probably* be a dull Lab hold but, like part by-elex it may spring a surprise. Some sources of uncertainty: 1. Seat had the same LT incumbent for over 30 yrs so we don’t know how voters will react to an open contest.
2. There is usually an anti-incumbent and/or anti-system dynamic in by-elex. 3. Voters are unusually volatile and unhappy with all mainstream parties 4. We have no idea how, if at all, ongoing Brexit crisis will impact on voter behaviour.
5. Both extremes of the political spectrum have high profile candidates standing. Ultra Brexit/nationalist/socially conservative voters have Neil Hamilton for UKIP; ultra-Remain/cosmopolitan/socially liberal have Amelia Womack (deputy leader of Greens)
Im not saying there will be an upset. But I’ve seen largely ignored by-elex deliver shocks before and we are living through volatile times. So you never quite know.
