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European election season is heating up, so here's the tweets you all have (not) been waiting for about... Finland!
[Thread.]
[Thread.]
Journalists are all in on covering the upcoming European Parliament elections. But most power still resides in nation states and the EP is not the most powerful institution within the EU.
So national elections remain more important. Poland's in the fall are crucial, for example.
So national elections remain more important. Poland's in the fall are crucial, for example.
Ok, so, Finland...
The spotlight here has been on the far-right populist "True Fins" party. Late opinion polls suggested that it may come second.
According to early returns, it could only come third or forth. (Look for PS in the attached chart.)
The spotlight here has been on the far-right populist "True Fins" party. Late opinion polls suggested that it may come second.
According to early returns, it could only come third or forth. (Look for PS in the attached chart.)
So there are three major stories here:
1) The most important: political fragmentation.
Look at the likely new parliament. You don't need to know much about these parties to guess just how difficult it will be to form a stable - not to speak of coherent - governing coalition.
1) The most important: political fragmentation.
Look at the likely new parliament. You don't need to know much about these parties to guess just how difficult it will be to form a stable - not to speak of coherent - governing coalition.
2) Some recovery for center-left parties
The Social Democrats were once dominant in Finland. For the past twenty years, they've been out of power. That's long enough for them to recover somewhat, in part by taking a more culturally conservative line.
Even so, they're below 20%.
The Social Democrats were once dominant in Finland. For the past twenty years, they've been out of power. That's long enough for them to recover somewhat, in part by taking a more culturally conservative line.
Even so, they're below 20%.
3) It's very hard for populist parties to moderate
The True Fins surged to nearly 20% in 2015, and became part of the government. The leader, Timo Soini, moderated. It looked like a way to rein in their destructive energy. But...
The True Fins surged to nearly 20% in 2015, and became part of the government. The leader, Timo Soini, moderated. It looked like a way to rein in their destructive energy. But...
...Soini wasn't able to take his party, or his voters, with him.
He split from his old movement, founding an old party -- which disappeared off the political landscape today.
Instead, the True Fins are back above 15%, and more radical than they'd been in 2015.
He split from his old movement, founding an old party -- which disappeared off the political landscape today.
Instead, the True Fins are back above 15%, and more radical than they'd been in 2015.
TL;DR: The populists aren't about to take over in Finland. The center-left is moderately resurgent.
But: There are no stable or ideologically coherent majorities. And populism is here to stay even when specific populists moderate over time.
[End.]
But: There are no stable or ideologically coherent majorities. And populism is here to stay even when specific populists moderate over time.
[End.]
Update: The True Finns party keeps gaining throughout the evening. With 70% of the vote in, they are now the second strongest force. And since rural election results come in last, they may yet overtake the Social Democrats on the final stretch.
2nd Update: With 80% of the vote counted, the Social Democrats and the far-right populist True Fins can both expect the same number of seats in parliament.
There would either be a majority for a center-left to center-right or for a center-right to far-right coalition.
There would either be a majority for a center-left to center-right or for a center-right to far-right coalition.
