Thread by @JohnRentoul

Thread: I’m going to go back over some of my Brexit articles from the past half year to see if I can learn from what I got wrong..

“My sources say a no-deal Brexit is likely, but my head says there’s bound to be a deal. Which is right?” (Nov) Neither, it turned out
independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-…

My head was right – there was a deal – but I didn’t see parliament wouldn’t agree it, & I hadn’t realised there was a 3rd way: postponement

“It would be an act of historic irresponsibility for Labour MPs to force Britain out of the EU without a deal”: the next week I realised the Commons was a problem
independent.co.uk/voices/theresa…

But I still thought it was deal vs no-deal, & assumed Labour MPs would do the right thing – I still hadn’t seen the 3rd way of delay

“An unexpected new group, Brexiteers against Brexit, threatens Theresa May’s plan”: a week later, I realised “no Brexit” was possible
independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-…

“But there is a majority in the Commons against a no-deal Brexit, so their choice could be May’s Brexit or no Brexit”

I asked if Johnson & Raab really wanted “no Brexit” – in the end, they didn't, but enough other Tory MPs did vote, in effect, to stay in EU

“In a bizarre turn of events, Theresa May could get her Brexit deal through after all – the key lies with Yvette Cooper” (Jan) independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-…

I realised the importance of Yvette Cooper’s bill to block a no-deal Brexit, but predicted the outcome wrongly

I still assumed delay would be for purpose of a referendum – I hadn’t seen poss of delay through simply failing to make a decision

“If the PM cannot win the vote on her revised deal, Brexit will be delayed, possibly for ever” (Feb): I finally got there independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-…

PM had the day before accepted no-deal exit wouldn’t happen against the wishes of Commons – open-ended delay now a clear possibility

“It’s now clear to me Brexit probably won’t ever happen” (9 Mar): I’d said it to colleagues mid-Feb: I should have written it earlier independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-…

Defeats of PM’s deal on 12 & 29 Mar forced her to ask for 2 extensions in succession, & now we're unlikely to leave EU for foreseeable future

Lessons: I should have paid more attention to the horror at prospect of a no-deal Brexit across the Commons

This was a stronger force than the notional majority for a soft Brexit.
Ends

Plus: It took a long time to realise the legal default of no-deal exit on 29 March was not as definite as it seemed

Grateful to @SpinningHugo for helping to understand that; & how Commons divisions made any kind of Brexit difficult