Profile picture
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Put another way: the reason Bernie fans mostly haven't migrated to Warren is because the distinguishing feature of Bernie fans is not leftist policy views per se but that they (figuratively) want to blow up the system, including the Democratic Party.
Which, more power to them? But if this is true, it severely limits Sanders's growth potential *in the Democratic primary*. Having independents who can vote in the D primaries helps a bit, but "Democratic primary voters who don't like the Democratic Party" is not a huge market.
I remain somewhat fascinated by resistance *on the left* to Warren. And just add an exhibit that I'm not quite sure what to make of, here's a rather strange piece from @jacobinmag arguing that Warren's emphasis on policy is a sign of weakness. bit.ly/2ZYmFkl
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to Nate Silver
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @NateSilver538 see all

Profile picture
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Pretty sure I could talk myself into thinking that Bill de Blasio is the 14th- or 15th-most likely person to win the Democratic nomination.
Like Hickenlooper, he's a guy where if you were just looking at the resume without the name, you'd think it was semi impressive:

—2-term mayor of the largest US city (re-elected by 39 points)
—fairly popular with blacks & Hispanics
—outspoken progressive in a party moving left
Like most resumes, that leaves out the many, many, many negatives. Which is why he's 14th or 15th and not 4th or 5th. But he's above, like, the Swalwell-Moulton line.
Read 3 tweets
Profile picture
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
A lot of the replies to this are proving my points, which are that:
1) Many voters don't vote based on policy;
2) A fair number of Dems who do vote on policy will prefer Biden's policies to Bernie's;
3) Voters don't think Bernie has a lot of non-policy advantages vs. Biden.
Also, irrespective of age as a signifier of identity, one of the most fruitful lines of attack against Biden is simply that he's too old—polls show a lot of voters are concerned about that—and Bernie can't make that argument *at all*.
If you're a "never Biden" Democrat, and not at least a bit concerned with the state of the race right now, with Biden at ~38% and Bernie at ~16% after he got 43% last time, and a bunch of up-and-coming candidates you'd also prefer to Biden at 5-10%, I'm not sure what to tell you.
Read 3 tweets
Profile picture
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
MINI-THREAD: If you're someone on the left and you want to defeat Biden, a 76-year-old white guy, then maybe backing Sanders, a 77-year-old white guy, is not the way to do it.
Like it or not, "identity" (race, age, gender) is a major aspect of what people vote on. And you're probably not going to persuade many voters to back Bernie over Biden on the basis of electability or "leadership" (since Biden was VP); those are disadvantages for you, in fact.
So you're really banking on making up a LOT of ground on Bernie being closer to the center of the Democratic electorate on policy, which it's not clear he is, or voters agreeing with his institutional critique of the Democratic Party, which most Democrats won't.
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

Profile picture
Lyman Expand the House Stone, AKA 石來民
@lymanstoneky
Today I'm in @firstthingsmag arguing that only Nixon can go to China and this matters for pronatalism.

Wait, what?
firstthings.com/web-exclusives…
Okay, let me back up. There's a recent academic paper that's made the rounds arguing that the recent fertility increases in Russia and Belarus are driven by a resurgence in traditional values.
This paper was probably basically correct in many important regards.

Likewise, we know that Georgia's baby boom was basically caused by religious activity. So it fits the profile as well.
Read 28 tweets
Profile picture
Chris Megerian
@ChrisMegerian
“Put another way, the special counsel found no collusion by any Americans" with the Internet Research Agency's social media campaign, Barr says.
"There was no evidence of the Trump campaign colluding with the Russian government hacking," Barr says
The special counsel did not find that anyone in Trump campaign “illegally participated” in the distribution of hacked emails, Barr says
Read 3 tweets
Profile picture
random facts girl.
@soychicka
Put another way - personhood should require the one key attribute that separates our species from the majority of the animal kingdom:

Empathy.
Not just for those who have a transactional relationship with one's self, but true empathy - the ability to empathize with all other sentient beings - or at least all other humans.

It's literally one of the core traits that shaped human evolution.
psychologytoday.com/us/blog/your-w…
So, do the amoral entities currently extended the privileges of 'personhood' qualify under this sociobiological definition of 'person?'

No.
Read 7 tweets
Profile picture
Betocrat Brunch Bro
@latenitenoah
Bernie Sanders Facts
Bernie's tears cure cancer. But he doesn't use them for that purpose, because curing cancer is the government's job.
Bernie counted to infinity. Twice.

And it still wasn't as much as the money America would save with Medicare For All.
Read 10 tweets
Profile picture
Linda Tirado
@KillerMartinis
Set your clocks, because tonight we have a cultural activity!

The last time we read a book was Bob Woodward’s “Fear.” We’ve also read Comey, Spicer, Ivanka, Hillbilly Elegy etc, and those links are at the top of the included thread:
Tonight we’re reading a book about fascism and talking history and hysteria!

Send drinks to paypal.me/riseandbeheard or to Venmo at Linda-Tirado-3

See y’all at 5pm Eastern or so!
Okay! I hope you have your drinks and are settling in!

Usually I am reading books so that you don’t have to, but in this instance we are reading a book because we all should! So if you want to buy the thing, you can do that here: amazon.com/Anatomy-Fascis…
Read 214 tweets
Profile picture
Seth Abramson
@SethAbramson
(THREAD) BREAKING: In an extraordinary move, Sen. Feinstein (D-CA) has *unilaterally* released the transcript of Fusion GPS's testimony before the Senate Judiciary Committee.

What follows is a live-read of the transcript by a former criminal defense attorney. Hope you'll share.
1/ First, here's a link to the transcript, which is on Senator Feinstein's government website:
2/ This testimony is from August 22, 2017.

It's not the only testimony Glenn Simpson (Fusion GPS) has given before Congress. The Republicans did not want Americans to see this testimony; after publicly saying he'd vote to release it, Sen. Grassley (R-IA) reneged on his promise.
Read 204 tweets

Trending hashtags

#Lutheran #STEM #AFC #AshWednesday #Disney #Brexit #MUFC #genderbias #exvangelicals #MIGov #JavaScript #leanin #DevOps #Venus #PSG #BibleStudyCoffeeTime #womeninStem #POCinSTEM #Anthropology #racialbias #MCFC #warren #evolution #empathy #genetics
Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!