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1/Since 2008 the US economy has been in a dusk to dawn rave. We’re at 3 am, a few more hours left before the inevitable dawn and crash. And when the music stops we'll look to #bitcoin. Read on 👇
2/We were tripped up in 2018 when the Fed made its QT global margin call. Stocks tumbled and the economy trembled. But alas we ignored last call, reloaded, grinning, hands in the air. More easy money!
3/But the euphoria will not be long lived. The equities market melt up has been fueled by retail money and stock buybacks. It’s an energy high powered by powder instead of fundamentals. Economic malaise permeates the economy, we’re running on fumes.
4/Despite downside risks, signals of cyclical tightening, the bubble of all bubbles, let’s pump our way to 6 am. Debt burden is near WW2 levels. 
5/Pension unfunded liabilities are $4T and growing.
6/Commercial and industrial loans have soared beyond the pre 2008 peak.
7/The Fed’s bloated balance sheet has forever committed it to perpetual QE. From SF Fed Reserve Bank President Mary Daly, Feb 2019:
(balance sheet tool = large scale asset purchases = QE)
(balance sheet tool = large scale asset purchases = QE)
8/When the dawn comes the mainstream will be celebrating a new economic paradigm, touting debt as the solution to social and economic ills. MMT, UBI, NIRPS! Yet we’ve seen this before and it did not end well. From 1865:
9/During the US Civil war, Cooke orchestrated billions of dollars in credit for the Union securing its victory. Debt was celebrated as a military, political and financial revolution.
10/Yet shortly after Cooke’s pamphlet was published, England’s panic of 1866 unfolded, fueled by credit expansion and rampant speculation. The US followed with its own crisis in 1873. We’ve forgotten these past lessons.
11/And just before the 2008 crisis, Citigroup CEO Chuck Prince, in 2007:
12/The party will end and trillions in value will be vaporized. Central banks will scramble to “save the world economy,” resort to the same toolbox of broken policies, and once again use the public as its ultimate backstop.
13/But this time we have an exit ramp in Bitcoin. With sound money we rebuild our economies, realign wayward markets, and reward hard working savers. We create and transmit value from one generation to the next, ending fiat’s boom and bust wealth stealth cycles.
