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John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
, 5 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Is PM preparing to "cave in" to Labour's customs union Brexit plan? telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…
Maybe, but
(a) Corbyn has no interest in helping Tories out of their Brexit hole
(b) Even if he did, it wouldn't get through Commons
Re (b) @NickyMorgan01 said yesterday customs union would lose more Con votes than it would gain Lab ones – suspect this is true
Although it's complicated: SNP & others abstained on customs union indicative vote commonsvotes.digiminster.com/Divisions/Deta…
And I suspect a lot of Lab MPs would vote against any form of Brexit if it came to it
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John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
Knock me down with a feather. Labour may not be able to agree a Brexit deal after all; from @oliver_wright thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/m…
Also, 170+170?
Source to @oliver_wright: "“The question really is how you frame it to persuade both sets of MPs to swallow it”
Read 4 tweets
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John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
Why is Labour finding it so difficult to shake off accusations of antisemitism? Me for ⁦@indyminds⁩ independent.co.uk/news/uk/politi…
Corbyn praised Hobson's book, which says world capitalism is “controlled ... by men of a single and peculiar race”
Spokesperson for Corbyn quoted by The Times thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/c…
Read 3 tweets
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John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
Important #PMQs coming up: Corbyn vs May on council tax ahead of tomorrow's local elections
Andrew Grice and I standing by to comment on Facebook video facebook.com/pg/indypolitic…
#PMQs so desultory Corbyn didn’t realise he was being called to ask a question
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
So the #brexit debate is still fogged by confused and wishful thinking.

Here's what I think I know, after chats with both sides. 1/Thread
Let's start with the negotiation in Brussels where @Geoffrey_Cox is trying to secure enough changes to the backstop to change his legal advice that the Irish backstop is a potentially permanent trap.

There was a reason he didn't make his promised speech last week... /2
@Geoffrey_Cox It's because he's struggling (and going to struggle) to get what the ERG wants: either a 'time-limit' or an 'exit mechanism' from the Irish backstop.

My understanding is that discussion is not on time limits, but on "elucidating" the exit-mechanism process/ 3
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ooj
@SkidRowRadio_YT
THREAD: When the shit wants to get off the pot.

The centrists waking nightmare is currently the thought of actually having to endorse JC in important votes in the next few weeks, if his thus far winning strategy does result in May failing again. 1/
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
So @DominicRaab and Brexiteers think a defeat for @theresa_may
on Dec 11 will allow the UK to renegotiate the Irish backstop, specifically the right to leave unilaterally.

Here's why, after chats with both sides, that ain't happening IMO. 1/thread

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@DominicRaab @theresa_may First Raab thinks a PM that shows some "will and resolve" can get the EU to change its mind.

But his own experience must tell him different. Remember his own failed tilt at @simoncoveney demanding three-month exit clause? Fail. /2

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@DominicRaab @theresa_may @simoncoveney But even allowing for disingenuousness, there are 3 reasons why the EU is not bluffing when it says it won't renegotiate the backstop to give the UK a unilateral walkout clause.

1. They actually want to avoid a hard border
2. Political solidarity
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Brexit is the backstop; the backstop is #Brexit.

After 3 days in Belfast, talking to all sides, here's what I've learned - on the business and the politics of this deal. And its viability.

1/Thread
First the business/technical aspects of how a backstop would work.

I talked to business lobby groups, Stephen Kelly from @ManufacturingNI fresh back from talks with Barnier. And bosses of big companies.

The are surprisingly sanguine. /2

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@ManufacturingNI If the backstop emerges as the British want (and that is still an 'if') it would look as follows:

- all-UK in a temporary customs Union
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
The 'third way' is now the new thing in the #Brexit debate. Like No.10 suddenly discovered something last weekend after two years of trying.

So here's a long read on why there are no magic bullets to fix the customs conundrum - my latest

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
On the upside, a 'third way' carries implicit acknowledgement that the first two ways (the MaxFax and the New Customs Partnership) cannot solve the need for a border in the Irish Sea, if May wants to leave Customs Union and Single Market.

So what might the 'third way' be? /2
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Sir Ivan Rogers has crashed the Policy Scotland website with his 11,052 word #Brexit speech.

The link is below, but in the interim, here are some excerpts and some commentary - since, as you'd expect, it gives a shrewd account of where #Brexit is now/1

policyscotland.gla.ac.uk/blog-sir-ivan-…
First point is this speech is a plague on both houses - remainers and brexiteers - and a call for analysis based on what is possible, not on wishful thinking.

That will always lead to charges of 'defeatism', but while Rogers may be an Eeyore, he knows too much to be ignored /2
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telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…

...But Rogers isn't buying.../3
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