Thread by @cburniske

1/ Sharing slides from this morning's #Fluidity2019 talk, which for me represented the start of Blockchain Week(s) in NYC.

2/ The market is our best tool for quantifying and distilling expectation about #crypto's future.

3/ Given expectation is inherently about the *future,* it is bound to be driven by human emotion about the unknown.

(overly optimistic in bull markets, overly pessimistic in bear markets)

4/ One potential “future expectation” of #bitcoin is it gets through $1 trillion by the end of 2021 (the graph).

$BTC could do so while being half as volatile as it was from April 2015 to end of 2017.

5/ That's not to say #bitcoin won't be volatile.

In the coming years, $BTC along with the rest of #crypto will be one of the most volatile asset classes you could consider investing in.

6/ But #bitcoin is the price setter of what's possible for a protocol's market value.

7/ Using assumptions about #bitcoin's future ($1T) & then $BTC's dominance within crypto, we can work our way towards what #crypto's network value may get to in the next bull market ($2T? $3T?)

(yes, they're all flawed heuristics, you're welcome to choose your own) .

8/ We can then place #crypto at $2-3T in the context of what dot.com companies peaked at in 2000, which was $2.9T non-inflation adjusted, $4.4T inflation adjusted: money.cnn.com/2000/11/09/tec…

(yes, 50% price inflation for the dollar since 2000!)

9/ While #crypto may get close to tech & telecom boom #s in the heat of the next bubble, it's not clear to me the technology will be as mature as the internet/Web was by 2000.

10/ Why, then, could the next bubble still be so big for #crypto? A few reasons in the slide👇

+ With the tech & telecom boom we tinkered with the technology and left the structure of finance mostly intact.
In crypto we’re tinkering w/ the technology and structure of finance.

(for those that want to know the calculation logic, I just did DoD % changes in BTC’s network value, divided each of those daily changes in half, and then compounded those % price changes out from BTC’s current price. Used late April 2019 data)

11/ After establishing we should expect "the expectation" to be insane, I moved into "reality," the reason we're all in #crypto.

12/ Touching upon the idea of "tokenization," I raised quiet signs of momentum amongst traditional asset classes, with a $112M bond quietly being issued by Societe Generale on #Ethereum, and $442M raised in STOs in 2018, up 20x from 2017.

13/ For #DeFi, I shared @MakerDAO's $200M+ in credit issued in its first year (we're currently at $300M per @visavishesh's latest data).

@MakerDAO @visavishesh 14/ The almost 200,000 models submitted by data scientists around the world to @numerai's tournaments (decentralizing the insight behind asset management).

@MakerDAO @visavishesh @numerai 15/ @airswap's latest numbers, with the 2019 uptick showing #DeFi projects have a natural tailwind that will fuel growth & stress-test their systems: speculation itself.

(Yes, a cousin of the "circular economy of eyeballs" that Web companies experienced. Expect boom & bust).

@MakerDAO @visavishesh @numerai @airswap 16/ #DeFi makes sense in the current state of #crypto for many reasons, here are just a couple:

@MakerDAO @visavishesh @numerai @airswap 17/ I talked about a few other things from there, like interest from institutional investors and "cryptographic law trumping paper law in cryptoland," but concluded with the simple fact that...

@MakerDAO @visavishesh @numerai @airswap 18/ ...if cryptonetworks produce valuable services for society, it’s inevitable a market will blossom to value their native assets (it already has).

@MakerDAO @visavishesh @numerai @airswap 19/ While I was the messenger, the entire presentation came from the collective ideas of @jmonegro @BradUSV @alexhevans @mlphresearch, the @placeholdervc portfolio, and you, the person reading the last tweet of this thread 😉