, 10 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Or 40% for two "brexit with a deal" parties (with fairly different emphasis)
1/3 of vote no deal Brexit parties
1/3 of vote explicitly Remain parties

One-third No Deal Brexit

One-fifth hard-ish deal
One-fifth soft-ish deal

One-third No Brexit
European Elections amplify both No Dealers *and* Remainers as the more polarised third of the electorate takes part (16 million voters) while a less committed/less polarised & more bored third of the electorate (16 million) will sit this one out then go and vote in next GE
That's why 4 million voters were worth 29% in 2014 for Ukip, while 4 million voters were then worth 13% in 2015.
Its also why there is no "Farage paradox" handicap in european election that can be won with 4+ million votes (tho may mobilise Remain 4+ million too) in contrast to the 12-14 million votes needed to win a GE or 15-17 million votes needed in a referendum

Using 30% obscures that
EU electorate of 16m vs 32m

Older (helps Leave)
Middle-class (helps Remain)
Less diverse (hurts Lab)
(may help Brexit, Con, LDs & Green)

Historic enthusiasm gap helped Eurosceptics. Has closed. Early evidence says might have flipped to pro-EU, but campaigns may shift it.
The enthusiasm gap moved around in the initial polls. Worth checking in 7+ days

It will be impressive if European Elections projections to the General Election conveyed this enormous *half of the General Election voters weren't here*

That missing 16 million is different to the present 16 million - obviously, above all in how much less they care about Brexit
Its possible that major parties face an existential threat if don't pick a tribe/go with base. Its also contestable & challengeable that either can really do that

But this caveat about the missing half of the election vote is mostly ignored in that debate
This point weakens if Euros turnout was massively up to 50%+.

I am using 16 million as indicative estimate: 35% to 40% turnout seems a fair guess.
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to Sunder Katwala
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!