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Or 40% for two "brexit with a deal" parties (with fairly different emphasis)
1/3 of vote no deal Brexit parties
1/3 of vote explicitly Remain parties
1/3 of vote no deal Brexit parties
1/3 of vote explicitly Remain parties
Or:
One-third No Deal Brexit
One-fifth hard-ish deal
One-fifth soft-ish deal
One-third No Brexit
One-third No Deal Brexit
One-fifth hard-ish deal
One-fifth soft-ish deal
One-third No Brexit
European Elections amplify both No Dealers *and* Remainers as the more polarised third of the electorate takes part (16 million voters) while a less committed/less polarised & more bored third of the electorate (16 million) will sit this one out then go and vote in next GE
That's why 4 million voters were worth 29% in 2014 for Ukip, while 4 million voters were then worth 13% in 2015.
Its also why there is no "Farage paradox" handicap in european election that can be won with 4+ million votes (tho may mobilise Remain 4+ million too) in contrast to the 12-14 million votes needed to win a GE or 15-17 million votes needed in a referendum
Using 30% obscures that
Using 30% obscures that
EU electorate of 16m vs 32m
Older (helps Leave)
Middle-class (helps Remain)
Less diverse (hurts Lab)
(may help Brexit, Con, LDs & Green)
Historic enthusiasm gap helped Eurosceptics. Has closed. Early evidence says might have flipped to pro-EU, but campaigns may shift it.
Older (helps Leave)
Middle-class (helps Remain)
Less diverse (hurts Lab)
(may help Brexit, Con, LDs & Green)
Historic enthusiasm gap helped Eurosceptics. Has closed. Early evidence says might have flipped to pro-EU, but campaigns may shift it.
The enthusiasm gap moved around in the initial polls. Worth checking in 7+ days
It will be impressive if European Elections projections to the General Election conveyed this enormous *half of the General Election voters weren't here*
That missing 16 million is different to the present 16 million - obviously, above all in how much less they care about Brexit
That missing 16 million is different to the present 16 million - obviously, above all in how much less they care about Brexit
Its possible that major parties face an existential threat if don't pick a tribe/go with base. Its also contestable & challengeable that either can really do that
But this caveat about the missing half of the election vote is mostly ignored in that debate
But this caveat about the missing half of the election vote is mostly ignored in that debate
This point weakens if Euros turnout was massively up to 50%+.
I am using 16 million as indicative estimate: 35% to 40% turnout seems a fair guess.
I am using 16 million as indicative estimate: 35% to 40% turnout seems a fair guess.
