Thread by @fascinatorfun

This is well worth a read. The author is a Senior Lecturer in Politics at Prof Curtice’s Strathclyde Uni.

When a tactical vote may not work: the complex choice facing Remainers in the EP elections | LSE BREXIT blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2019/05…

If Britain used the same system as, for example, Germany, with no subdivision into regions, just allocating its 70 seats according to national vote shares, the d’Hondt system would create an almost perfectly proportional outcome.

3/ And the important point is that EP elections in the Britain not only use a somewhat disproportional system, but that the system is differently disproportional across British regions.

This looks at the 2014 vote split.

4/ Recent study suggests 3 English pro-remain parties will convert their combined 27% or so into only nine seats (12.8%), while the Brexit party is looking at converting just under 30% of votes into 29 seats (41.4%).

5/. The latter is doing so well because it polls at well over 30% everywhere outside Scotland, Wales and London

6/. Those final paragraphs are something of a cautionary tale and confirms that we need high quality data and quite complex regional analysis.

Reading about how Germany utilises D’Hondt in the EU elections ALSO gave me pause for thought.