Thread by @MacroTechnicals

housekeeping, delayed MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum Weekly recap wk19 as of 10May19 - PFLUGPOST thread 1/n

• 2nd wk of RiskOFF as China trade war intensified
• Global Stocks weak, Vola jumped, credit spreads widened, bonds+ JPY safe haven bid, CNH tanked

2/n update Global Markets YTD

• some annualised data still not sustainable...

3/n update Global Markets YoY

• mega rollercoaster in between as we all witnessed, FED flip flopped, China trade war, huge DD and V shaped rebound, but where are markets on a Y/Y basis vs Global PMI status quo ? yeah, that's right...

4/n update Global Markets overview wk/mth/YTD/YoY ROC

5/n update Global Markets Momentum / Trend / Exhaustion wk19

• some ST trends intact, but softer, momentum weak. or first sign of a new roll-over.
• a few ST oversold signals

6/n update Global FX matrix wk19

• RiskOFF
• strong safe haven bid into JPY
• CNH on the floor on new tariffs
• classic RiskOff move weak AUDJPY one of the top monthly whack -4.3%

7/n update Global Govt 10Y heatmap

• classic RiskOFF move into T-Notes and Bunds by 7bp
• BTPs and Greek got creamed
• ES+PT amazingly strong
• Ozzie and Kiwi bonds strong too as disinflation/China kicks in, plus RBNZ cut rates. RBA next
• Turkey is.... well...s*ite

8/n update Global Govt yields 2Y, 10Y, YieldCurve , FX

• RBNZ , Bank Negara, Bangko Sentral all cut rates 25bp = global dovish CBs
• Canada YC only 9bp AND PMI dropped < 50, 38M low
• Czech YC flat, PMI 46.6 and 76M low
• well...overall, global slowdown. fullstop.

9/n update Global M.PMI + data for context

10/n update US swap curves for big picture view going forward next 12M #cyclestuff

11/n update FOMC vs Market

• gap keeps widening...

12/n update Global Markets Momentum RiskOnOff monitor wk19

• RiskOFF at the moment

13/n update Global Markets CreditSpreads wk19

• samples of RiskOFF momentum, spreads reversed

14/n update Global Markets VIX new regime

• as expected (spot) 12 held and shot up 7 points

15/n update big picture US YieldCurve going forward what to expect for implied vola

• I showed this regularly and said expect suppressed vola Q1+Q2, but H2 could be nasty... maybe it started already, China trade negotiations taking the toll on that = uncertainty.

16/n update US dashboard wk19

• RiskOFF mode
• Global biz confidence weak
• US confidence weaker
• FF Futures pricing in cuts
• Ratios/Spreads turned red
• If this is just the overdue correction, or a roll-over is to be seen.

17/n US stock market ... overdue small correction or rolling over ? Breadth Indicator didn't have a divergence and just testing first MA.

18/n that's all for now folks...

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