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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Latest #Brexit rap. A few extra points in addition to bullets in note below. 1) Con-Lab talks likely to collapse soon. Not today. But could well be tomorrow.
2) We think speculation that Labour might abstain on second reading vote on WAB is wide of the mark (privately, Ministers
...admit their best hope lies with Labour backbenchers representing Leave areas). 3) Could Farage’s success make Labour jittery? Already priced in by Tory side. 4) Ministers currently expect choice facing MPs in October to be between no-deal (winning growing Tory support amid..
Farage’s rise); revoking Article 50; a referendum and a further extension. After having spent the week in Bxl, I know EU side are not amused - & that patience has worn thin ENDS
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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
Good thread. Here a few rebuttals: 1) Despite what pol parties have said publicly, in private there's little/no support in EP for Weber or Spitz process generally. 2) Socialists & ALDE are signalling they won't support Weber & there's no way for EPP to build a majority w/out them
So 3) It's not the Council that will kill Spitz - it will happen itself by virtue of fact EP won't be able to coalesce around a candidate. So fallout for leaders will be limited - Spitz dies in EP not Council. 4) With no name to consider, I hear Tusk will test names on Sun night
5) This is where Barnier's name surfaces - he's EPP, so their "win" still acknowledged; he has support of French & critically 6) he'll easily carry absolute majority in EP (where he is loved across the board for the love he - smartly & purposely - showed MEPs through Brexit)
Read 8 tweets
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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
Promised to build on these initial views with more colour from Brussels. Short thread on EU top jobs and how the EP elex and Europe's new leadership could affect #Brexit
Based on chats, I do now give much greater credence to the view that Germany will seek Weidmann for @ecb. Also think @guyverhofstadt will need to be part of the mix of top jobs - perhaps he, along with @ManfredWeber, will each serve 2.5 years as rotating Presidents of the EP?
Merkel's role is top of mind for senior officials in Bxl. The question here is no longer "could Merkel head to the European Council?" but "is Merkel going to be strong enough to push back against her EPP allies & Weber's Spitz candidacy for the Commission?" Lots of uncertainty
Read 15 tweets
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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
Where is France on #Brexit, EP elex, EU top jobs & future of Union? All now very interrelated. Thread based on recent trip to Paris. A lot was made of @EmmanuelMacron stance at last #EUCO. But France's concern is not that UK would act as a "spoiler". This oversimplification 1/
I know majority of officials at UKREP - this isn't how they behave/would behave in Council. France's concern is more subtle-that sheer presence of UK in EU will prevent EU being able to advance a new, substantive agenda beyond 2019. As one official says "UK is 15% of EU budget 2/
"As long as UK is MS, which country would accept a haircut on its expenditures?" So delaying deal on MFF. Or as another official says "Brexit has been good at forcing EU to protect its unity. But it makes it less easy to promote a new vision, new values & a new approach". 3/
Read 14 tweets

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Simon Fraser
@SimonFraser00
1/7 So much uncertainty about what will happen next on #Brexit. See six options for the period from now to October, set out in following thread - with probabilities. Anyone agree?
2/7 Option 1: Con/Lab deal. Both have clear interest in rendering EP election meaningless by preemptive agreement on deal. Frontbenches may be able to agree, but I doubt either could sell a deal to their backbenches. Probability: 15%
3/7 Option 2: May's deal gets voted through. Cannot write this off despite multiple rejections. More attractive to Conservative Brexiters than a deal with Labour? But no credibility left. Probability: 15%
Read 7 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Where @ShippersUnbound reveals the Tory-Labour #brexit deal...which doesn’t make that much sense...

Apparently it’s a ‘customs arrangement til 2022 election...and then may the best team win on fight for hard/soft Brexit.

But.../1

thetimes.co.uk/article/c42af7…
If this gets the Withdrawal Agreement over the line, Customs is a pretty moot question until 2022 because we’re in a standstill transition arrangement...it could in theory end earlier But..../2
If the U.K. has passed the Withdrawal Agreement it will also have agreed to the Irish backstop - no hard border/no additional infrastructure and related checks and controls.

Which means hard Brexit advocates MUST fix this issue as part of trade/future talks. /3
Read 9 tweets
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Antonello Guerrera
@antoguerrera
(THREAD IN ITALIAN)
Che cosa è successo in questi ultimi due pazzi giorni di #Brexit? E cosa potrebbe succedere nella prossima, decisiva settimana? Prima dell'aperitivo, provo a spiegarvelo il più semplice possibile nei prossimi tweet. 🇬🇧🇪🇺
1. Dunque, Theresa May ieri ha subito la terza mazzata: il suo accordo #Brexit è stato sconfitto di 58 voti, meno delle altre due volte (quando era andato sotto di 230 e 149 voti), ma comunque nettamente. Anzi, stavolta aveva presentato in aula solo metà sul suo accordo. 🤯
2. Ma come solo mezzo accordo? Eh sì. Come il cavaliere nero dei Monty Python, cui mozzano un arto dopo l'altro ma lui continua ad agitarsi, l'ultima tattica di Theresa May e dei suoi è stata proprio questa, apparentemente incredibile. Ma con un obiettivo preciso.
Brexit
Read 33 tweets
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Lord Snoutintrough #FBPE
@Rowland72James
As a remainer I scratch my head as to why #Brexit continues to enjoy significant support despite overwhelming evidence its a really bad idea so thought I'd offer a psychological explanation for its appeal to some of its supporters which simply cannot lie in objective reality
I have no knowledge experience or professional qualifications in psychology whatsoever but as this is #brexit Britain this means I know more than professionals like @RichardBentall so offer my brexpertise on the psychological appeal of Brexit confident in my total ignorance
Being a Brexiter means being part of a huge crowd where not only are you all cheering for the same thing but this crowd permits and even encourages behaviour and attitudes which are normally forbidden and some brexiters at least feel liberated from decency and reason
Read 25 tweets
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David Carretta
@davcarretta
#Brexit: martedì potrebbe iniziare l'uscita di Uk senza accordo.

Tutti i governi Ue si stanno preparando con avvertimenti a cittadini, amministrazioni, imprese. Alcuni assumono migliaia di persone per le dogane.

Forse mi son perso qualcosa. Ma il governo italiano che fa?
Facciamo un esempio: in Italia risiedono 28.168 cittadini britannici.

Dopo la Brexit diventeranno extra-comunitari. Cosa ne facciamo in caso di no-deal? Tutti espulsi con foglio di via il 30 marzo?

Oppure li facciamo votare alle elezioni comunali come ora?
Un alto esempio banalotto: l'Italia esporta 760 milioni di euro di vino, di cui 300 milioni di prosecco.

In caso di no-deal servono doganieri per le pratiche di esportazione. E chi glielo dice ai trevigiani che devono prendersi un broker a Dover per sdoganare?
Read 10 tweets
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Phil Syrpis
@syrpis
I'm just back from a holiday in Crete. I have been thinking (too much) about @UKLabourparty and #brexit. So here’s a quick thread. 1/n
I have already written about my frustrations with @UKLabourparty. My view is that the Party should come out strongly against Brexit; for principled as well as tactical reasons. 2/n
Principle: Brexit will damage the country. In case we needed reminding, we heard again from Philip Hammond today: . 3/n
Read 16 tweets

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