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1/7 So much uncertainty about what will happen next on #Brexit. See six options for the period from now to October, set out in following thread - with probabilities. Anyone agree?
2/7 Option 1: Con/Lab deal. Both have clear interest in rendering EP election meaningless by preemptive agreement on deal. Frontbenches may be able to agree, but I doubt either could sell a deal to their backbenches. Probability: 15%
3/7 Option 2: May's deal gets voted through. Cannot write this off despite multiple rejections. More attractive to Conservative Brexiters than a deal with Labour? But no credibility left. Probability: 15%
4/7 Option 3: Further extension after 31 October. Looks most likely given political stasis & loss of momentum. But growing public anger could force hands, or EU could run out of patience if big Farage contingent is disrupting EP, or hard Brexiter becomes PM. Probability: 30%
5/7 Option 4: Second or confirmatory referendum. (Could be linked to option 1). Labour split on this and most Conservatives against. So still unlikely even if desirable. But if other options continue to fail it could be the way to break the logjam in October. Probability: 15%
6/7 Option 5: General election. Unlikely soon. Would require new Con leader first, who would seek new mandate presumably for harder Brexit. But high risk for Conservatives: squeezed on left and right. Another hung parliament? Probability: 15%
7/7 Option 6: No deal. May has hardened her position against this so it would require a new Con PM. But even then this Parliament would vote against. So hard to get to without election, or unless EU lose patience and impose no deal. Probability: 10%
