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Good thread. Here a few rebuttals: 1) Despite what pol parties have said publicly, in private there's little/no support in EP for Weber or Spitz process generally. 2) Socialists & ALDE are signalling they won't support Weber & there's no way for EPP to build a majority w/out them
So 3) It's not the Council that will kill Spitz - it will happen itself by virtue of fact EP won't be able to coalesce around a candidate. So fallout for leaders will be limited - Spitz dies in EP not Council. 4) With no name to consider, I hear Tusk will test names on Sun night
5) This is where Barnier's name surfaces - he's EPP, so their "win" still acknowledged; he has support of French & critically 6) he'll easily carry absolute majority in EP (where he is loved across the board for the love he - smartly & purposely - showed MEPs through Brexit)
Even if I'm wrong & EP sends a name for #EUCO to consider Sun night, think Macron will kill it. QMV is irrelevant: simply impossible that COM job can be approved w/out support of French Head of State. Fallout limited: is there really a groundswell of support for Weber? Sceptical
7) What about rest? Next key question is Berlin and whether they want ECB. Still think they'd rather have dirty work at ECB done by a proxy. Plus, can Weidmann credibly lead an institution he's taken to Court? Berlin will still need a big prize. @WeyandSabine as Sec Gen, perhaps?
Satisfies condition that a top German official will be needed alongside French. Imp: this is not a Franco-German stitch up. You get there because of the numbers. & for rest, it's all about working about backwards: Socilaists, ALDE, CEE all require representation
Of course huge caveats apply & all this will likely prove wrong - but this is how I see the picture as of now
I should add.. I also don't buy the rumours circulating around about Croatian PM Plenković for Commission Presidency. Think he'd be the fall guy. But again.. who knows where it'll all land
