Thread by @Mij_Europe

Where is France on #Brexit, EP elex, EU top jobs & future of Union? All now very interrelated. Thread based on recent trip to Paris. A lot was made of @EmmanuelMacron stance at last #EUCO. But France's concern is not that UK would act as a "spoiler". This oversimplification 1/

I know majority of officials at UKREP - this isn't how they behave/would behave in Council. France's concern is more subtle-that sheer presence of UK in EU will prevent EU being able to advance a new, substantive agenda beyond 2019. As one official says "UK is 15% of EU budget 2/

"As long as UK is MS, which country would accept a haircut on its expenditures?" So delaying deal on MFF. Or as another official says "Brexit has been good at forcing EU to protect its unity. But it makes it less easy to promote a new vision, new values & a new approach". 3/

For these reasons, rolling extensions are seen as worse than no deal. However, senior officials don't exclude a "reset" in the 2nd phase & very ambitious future relations - approaching "de facto membership" that could then be used as a template for other 3rd countries.

This view discussed at highest levels of UK Govt too. But it hinges on orderly exit &WA. All this will partly be for new @EU_Commission Pres to manage. And if France has its way, it will be in a position to exercise lots of influence over new COM & its Pres. Why? France wants COM

As one senior officials says "in terms of substance, impact, it's clear the Commission is the top job of top jobs". Who could candidate be? Officials see "narrow market. We can't produce a leader from nowhere. They will need to be known by the 27." This leave 4 possibilities:- 6/

1) Former Commissioners/PMs; 2) Spitz candidates eg @ManfredWeber et al; 3) "credible alternatives" (eg @MichelBarnier @vestager) or 4) surprises. We remain of view France will push @MichelBarnier. Despite some reservations, he remains a star for way he managed Brexit-not outcome

Although no visionary, on #Brexit @MichelBarnier has built an incredibly robust & successful team, led by @WeyandSabine & @riso_stephanie. Could he replicate leadership of TF50 to run Commission President's Cabinet? Probs not, but now v much discussed - in Paris, Bxl & beyond 8/

Can Macron succeed? Alot will depend on EP elex. Officials believe results will matter domestically: "like national elections, Euro elections are proportional. So directly comparable to 1st round of Presidential election. Macron has also accepted a symbolic fight with Le Pen." 9/

So Macron not only hoping to beat Le Pen, but also get > 24% that he secured in 1st round of Presidential election in 2017. Rash of new polls that show Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National edging ahead of Macron’s LREM party therefore worrying for the Élysée as... 10/

officials think results "& the national dynamic" will have big impact on EU game of top jobs that follows. Other factors will matter too: 1) game in @EuropeanParl the day after results, as EP's political families will try & send a message/stitch up the Spitzenkandidat process 11/

Officials recognise "Europe's pan-EU parties are powerful not because they are close to voters but because they are big bureaucracies." So LREM has to engage robustly in EP the day after the results. This is Nathalie Loiseau's job - & the reason she was chosen to head LREM list

There will also be a #EUCO end May to discuss top jobs, otherwise MS fear the EP will be too organised and better able to bounce their candidates into key posts. So Heads meeting designed to be a "circuit breaker" & take initiative away from EP & give it back to EU's 27 leaders

So it's all hotting up - & Brexit now heavily in play with EU's internal process of succession & renewal. Over next few weeks I'll be in Rome, Bxl & Berlin, to assess how officials there are seeing things /ENDS