Thread by @dany_bahar

THREAD: In light of @AKurmanaev's fabulous @nytimes piece on the collapse of #Venezuela (nytimes.com/2019/05/17/wor…) the discussion on "who is to blame" for this might not be urgent, but some have took the task of blame that on someone other than the Venezuelan regime 1/14

For example, last month Jeffrey Sachs & Mark Weisbrot claimed 2017 US sanctions imposed on Venezuela caused 40K+ deaths. Their analysis is based on one graph comparing oil production of Venezuela & Colombia, where any difference post-2017 is BECAUSE of sanctions 2/14

The 2017 sanctions limited the ability of Venezuela to issue new sovereign debt.Their claim is that the inability to raise more debt resulted in a decrease in oil production, and therefore on reduced caloric intake of population & over 40,000 deaths. Based on that one graph 3/14

Think what you want about #Venezuela, but let's agree with one thing: one should NOT conclude *causal* statements like that based on ONE graph.

With @seba_bustos @JoseMoralesA & @miguelsantos12 we revisited their evidence here: brookings.edu/research/revis… via @BrookingsGlobal 4/14

The main assumption to compare Colombia and Venezuela oil production is that Venezuela would have behaved same as Colombia in the absence of sanctions. This is impossible to test, of course. But we can at least look at whether their behavior pre-2017 is somewhat similar 5/14

In their graph they show trends starting in 2013. Here is our graph where we start in 2010. Do you see how different the trends are before 2013? Colombia oil production is not a valid counterfactual for Venezuela, and therefore we cannot conclude anything about post-2017 6/14

We also show is impossible to estimate causal effect of sanctions on the drop in caloric intake or even imports of food and medicine, as they were in sharp drop way before 2017 arguably because failed policies (e.g., price controls, expropriations, you name it...) 7/14

The humanitarian crisis in Venezuela results in MANY preventable deaths. But again, this catastrophe precedes 2017. Infant mortality rates, a proxy for quality provision of public services, has been rising way before 2017 8/14

There is simply no way to attribute this destruction to the sanctions. While they might have had an effect, it is important to know: the bulk of the deterioration happened way before 2017. 9/14

By 2016 food imports in the country had fallen by 71 percent from their 2013 peak. Imports of medicines and medical equipment fell by 68% b/t 2013 and 2016. 10/14

By 08/2017 Venezuelans earning minimum wage could only afford a maximum of 6,132 of the cheapest available calories per day, equivalent to 56% of minimum dietary needs of a family of five. This is 92% fewer calories than the minimum wage could purchase in January 2010 11/14

Last but not least, infant mortality, a good proxy for the quality of public health services, grew by 44% between 2013 and 2016 and has continued to do so since... 12/14

The further deterioration observed since 2017—whether caused by the sanctions or by alternative factors—by no means constitutes the bulk of the collapse that has caused widespread suffering, death, and displacement to millions of Venezuelans 13/14

The weight of evidence seems to indicate that much of the suffering and devastation in Venezuela has been, in line with most accounts, inflicted by those in power. Ignoring this and blaming the bulk of the damage on agents others than Maduro (and Chavez) would be dishonest 14/14

APPENDIX: You can all see our report here, as well as download the data so that you can do the calculations yourself brookings.edu/research/revis…