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1/Mini-thread on Trump's terrible poll numbers. Last 5 polls using @FiveThirtyEight's system: 35/60 -25, 40/54 -14, 40/56 -16, 42/54 -12, 42/53 -11. He's gone fr 9.7 to 12.8, a loss of 3 pts in the last 2 weeks. He is officially weakest incumbent POTUS in history of polling.
2/Our friend @ThePlumLineGS does a deep dive 👇on Trump's weakness in the industrial north, key 2020 battleground. Rs got trounced there in high turnout '18, his numbers continue to be awful there. Importantly even his trade policies are deeply unpopular.
3/I wrote about the failure of Trump's grand strategy a few months ago 👇. Trumpism's nativism/protectionism has pushed heavily Mexican-American SW/West even deeper/further towards Dems, but has not succeeded in maintaining industrial north. ndn.org/blog/2019/02/n… Huge fail.
4/Trump is weak right now, extraordinarily weak. He's the weakest incumbent we've seen in modern era. His "America First" political strategy has failed. Economy will slow, his legal troubles worsen. We are at the point where Rs could start jumping ship if things don't improve.
5/Many takeaways from this analysis but for me a key one is that Democrats have far more running room to attack Trump's failed imm and trade policies, and champion openness/smart imm policies/liberal order than they understand. America First has failed.
