The key dividing line in the Tory leadership contest won't be Leave vs. Remain but deal vs. no-deal.
So we can safely rule out anyone who supported Remain including those that have swung behind no-deal. Say goodbye to Hunt, Javid, Stewart.
But she won't.
The surprise formulation will be a joint Hancock-Rudd ticket, arguing for a generational shift.
They won't succeed. But they will swing behind a pro-deal candidate.
It's pointless for him to take a no-deal position as it is crowded territory...& most Tory MPs aren't there.
So Gove stands as the reasonable Brexiter.
It becomes a 'unity' pitch that the 'One Nation' group will likely swing behind. They may not love Gove, but he's better than any no-dealer.
It's unclear who emerges, but it's probably between Mordaunt and Johnson.
The latter has both more support and far more opposition.
If it's Johnson, he probably wins the membership poll. But if its any other no-dealer, they could well lose to Gove.
Gove will also promise that if necessary he would leave without a deal
And tonight, my tip is @michaelgove