Thread by @DrAlbertazziUK

1/ First exit polls out in Italy. Brief thread (on the move).

Warning: accuracy still low hence all very provisional.

2/ Forza Italia btw 9-11%. Good result for @berlusconi. If replicated in general election would definetely allow him to achieve his current objective: be king maker without whom a right wing govt cannot take off. Worse than being fulcrum of political system as he has been...

3/... for decades, but a hell of a lot better than being irrelevant. This matters not because he would contain Salvini's radicalism (he wouldn't) but because - added to results of others on right - confirms that this pole remains by far the strongest vs. left and M5S.

4/ Centre-left PD btw 21-25 & second party. Good result for new leader @nzingaretti who will argue party is bouncing back. Paradoxically, good news for his opponent Salvini, too. If latter brings down this govt in autumn, will be harder for @nzingaretti to resist calls...

5/... from his own side that PD should facilitate elections as soon as possible. When, in fact, right wing coalition (FI, Lega, Brothers of Italy) much ahead right now.

6/ Brothers of Italy's own projected result (5-7%) also surprisingly good since this is a party whose political space has been colonised entirely by Salvini in recent years & was left chasing the League with proposals such as sinking NGO ships carrying migrants.

7/ M5S btw 18-23% depending on poll, but difference btw two figures hugely significant. At 18 =it's third party behind PD by far, when it was largest a year ago (yes, we shouldn't compare general & EU elections, but trouble is: voters & journalists will. & this shapes narrative).

8/ I very much doubt they'll have the courage to bring down govt because of this, & that they have the vision to plan some strategically clever moves to try & dig their way out of the pit.

But they'll keep raising their voices vs. Salvini from now on, facilitating his task...

8/... when the time comes for him to pull the plug. Govt will be at risk in the autumn, for reasons much debated in recent weeks having to do with the impossibility of cutting taxes, increasing expenditure & still stay within parameters fixed by @EU_Commission, all at once.

9/ Finally Salvini's League: gets btw 26.5 & 31% depending on poll. Again difference btw these two extremely significant.

First things first: yes this is second order (etc etc) but anyone observing Italian politics since Salvini became leader SHOULD recognise extraordinary...

10/ results achieved by him in electoral terms. At last EU elections League was at 6%... one year ago at 17...

BUT, & it's big but, particularly if result comes in at below 30%, it would be well below expectations of 35% or more just a month ago.

As l have written here...

11/... l think that confirmation that the League's star may be waning poses more risks to this govt than its growing success (within reason!):

google.com/amp/s/theconve…

12/ A weak & directionless M5S, combined with a PD that feels more confident, & a League that may be losing its shine (while the right wing pole as a whole remains by far the strongest) provide a very favourable set of circumstances to put an end to the actual governing alliance

13/ Won't happen till the autumn & we will notice change of narrative first. League will accuse M5S of betraying the electorate, of boycotting delivery of the "Contract for Govt", signed a year ago by the two.

14/ In this case, & particularly if PD is happy with having them, elections would follow in Spring 2020.

Having said all this, these are exit polls, they have been inaccurate before, & the difference btw some of the values l mentioned are substantial & significant /END/