Thread by @shannongsims

Leftists in Brazil are thrilled with the breaking story by the Intercept indicating the Car Wash corruption probe that landed ex-prez Lula in jail was politically motivated.

Want to know my opinion? It’s not going to be popular😬, but my goal was never to be popular.(Thread👉)

https://twitter.com/marcelofreixo/status/1137877857827532802

1) I’m not sure this bombshell report changes anything at all. It’s interesting and scandalous, but I have my doubts that it will create the kind of massive change that leftists are hoping it will.

2) The folks in power in Brazil desperately wanted Lula in jail. He was a political threat, and yes, he was surely corrupt (you obtain political power in Brazil through corruption, unfortunately). The idea that they will not use their power to keep him jailed now seems naive.

3) Many commenters say Moro, who was headed to the Sup Court, will lose that chance. I don’t think Brazilian justice is so clear cut. Bolsonaro is the most powerful man in Brazil; if he wants Moro as justice I think he’ll get his way. And now he may do so just to spite leftists.

4) Other commenters believe this will make Brazilians side with the PT. I disagree. Brazilians who voted against the PT did so on a very fundamental level; they wanted something new & lost faith in the PT (if they ever had it). I doubt they’ll now suddenly declare themselves PT.

5) And there’s the little problem of the info obtained by Intercept being illegally obtained through hacking. That’ll be Bolsonaro & Moro’s critique. I’ll be interested to see what Greenwald argues on this point (he’s surely thought of it). But it does make the scoop problematic.

6) One note here to say that The Intercept has contributed *excellent* reporting to Brazil, covering topics that major media in Brazil won’t. I respect their journalists, including those who broke this scoop. I want to clarify that’s not at issue here.

7) Ultimately, I don’t think any Brazilians authentically believed that Lula’s jailing was not to some extent politically motivated. Of course it was. This is Brazil, baby. Seeing proof that it was does not seem to necessarily change things all that much.

8) Maybe I’m wrong, sure sure. I’m just sharing my gut reaction here. But I suspect that if the left wants to take power back in Brazil, they’ll need to do it not by fighting Moro or even freeing Lula, but by organizing for the 2022 election in order to protect their values.

9) I welcome your thoughts, including comments that disagree with me. Just don’t be abusive, you’ll be blocked.

And if you’ve come here to call me a ho & tell me the only reason I tweeted this was because I want to have sex with Neymar, sorry, you’re late. That was last week.✌️