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1/ Today Pres. Trump nominated Judge Halil “Sul” Ozerden to fill the Mississippi vacancy on the 5th Circuit. That seat has been empty since the beginning of the Trump administration. whitehouse.gov/presidential-a… 
2/ Several conservative commentator have expressed doubts about Judge Ozerden. For example, @JCNSeverino and @kenklukowski suggested that he "he has not demonstrated a commitment to textualist methods of statutory interpretation." nationalreview.com/bench-memos/co…
3/ I haven't studied Judge Ozerden's record at all. In fact, I hadn't heard of him until his name was first mentioned for the position.
4/ By any objective measure, Judge Ozerden is qualified to be a Circuit Judge. He has been a district court judge for more than a decade and was a decorated flight officer in the Navy. He brings far more judicial experience than most circuit nominees.
5/ Judge Ozerden is being criticized not for who he is, but who he is not. He's not a Don Willett, Jim Ho, Kyle Duncan, or Andy Oldham--all of whom are #SCOTUS shortlisters. Indeed, at 52, he is a decade older than the other noms, and is already older than J. Gorsuch.
6/ Ozerden simply lacks the notoriety and track record that Trump's other nominees to the 5th Circuit have. I know the other names that were in play for the MS seat. POTUS's decision to not pick one of those other possible noms is leading to even more angst about Ozerden.
7/ For example, @josh_hammer suggests that WH Counsel Pat Cippolone is to blame for this nominee. Recall that this seat stayed open throughout the entirety of Don McGahn's tenure. Even the maven could't fill the seat.
8/ @josh_hammer also suggests that @HawleyMO and other Republicans should seriously question Ozerden. In other words, #Bogren him.
9/ With #Borking, the Democrats oppose a Republican nominee for being too conservative. With #Bogrening, the Republican oppose a Republican nominee for not being conservative enough. (Or maybe we should call it #Miering)
10/ The decision of Republicans to spike a Republican nominee will invariably turn on a single question: should the Senate keep the seat open, with the hope that the President can nominate someone better in the future.
11/ That calculus turns on whether (1) the President wins re-election, (2) the Republicans keep the Senate, and (3) the President can make another deal with homes-state senators.
12/ I will leave the first two questions to polling experts. But the third question is critical. If Republican Senators spike a nominee that was approved by the home-state Senators, those senators may be less willing to make another deal.
13/ Going forward, the Michigan Senators will feel burned after #Bogren. And, I suspect, the Senators from Mississippi, including @SenHydeSmith, will be burned if Ozerden is spiked. Today she boasted about the nom (her tweet got all of 3 retweets)
14/ Maybe the answer is that POTUS simply ignores what home-state senators think, and picks the best athlete. In that case, POTUS could even pick someone for the MS seat from TX. (We have a surplus of qualified noms here, including the runner-ups to the Oldham nom)
15/ As I understand it, there is no statutory requirement that a Circuit Court seat be affiliated with any particular state. Rather, custom, and not law has dictated that practice. Some seats have often moved between states within a given circuit.
16/ But until that sort of change is made, the President is stuck playing ball with home-state senators. And #Bogrening nominees for being insufficiently conservative, or even not being impressive enough, is a counterproductive strategy.
17/ If successful, the seat will remain vacant, en banc polls will come up short, and a qualified nominee will have his career sullied as collateral damage. Not every pick can be a grand slam.
18/ @politico shines light on some of the backstory I alluded to w/ the Ozerden nom: "Mulvaney, who was a groomsman in Ozerden’s 2003 wedding, supported the 53-year-old district court judge’s nomination long before he joined the White House this winter" politico.com/story/2019/06/…
19/ It is also possible WH Counsel predicted Senators would oppose Ozerden, paving way for a substitute nominee of its choice @josh_hammer
