Thread by @lewis_goodall

TORY LEADERSHIP BALLOT 1:

GOVE: 37
HANCOCK: 20
HARPER: 10 (OUT)
HUNT: 43
JAVID: 23
JOHNSON: 114
LEADSOM: 11 (OUT)
MCVEY: 9 (OUT)
RAAB: 27
STEWART: 19

Blinder for Johnson. Assuming he doesn't have anyone turn against him in next ballot he's already through to the next round.

Doesn't seem much doubt about it. Unless Johnson implodes (not impossible) he's going to be prime minister.

Bit disappointing for Hunt. If he'd piled on another dozen he'd have had a clear shot at second. In fact second is still wide open. Gove still v much in contention. And keep an eye on Javid. Not a bad finish. He's going to have his eye on Hancock's 20.

Johnson's lead not as impresssive as May's was in 2016 but then, there were far more candidates this time.

If Raab drops out there are 47 votes from hard Brexiters up for grabs. Johnson will presumably pick up a fair share of those.

Raab might fight and get closer to Gove and absorb some of those Leadsom/McVey votes for himself. Beyond that not clear though where he goes next. Not much space to grow because there aren't that many no dealers. Which is a reminder of the position's problem in parliament.

If Johnson is a runaway first he'll be able to say he's the clear pick of the parliamentary party; that the Tories don't want a Labour/Corbyn type problem in selecting someone not supported by the majority of MPs. That's powerful.

Btw even with seven candidates left (and three out) there are still more candidates left in this race than in any other Tory leadership contest in history.

Oh and worth noting: the UK's next prime minister will be definitely be a man. So, the record so far.

Male prime ministers: 284 years
Female prime ministers: 14 years