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Lewis Goodall
@lewis_goodall
, 9 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
TORY LEADERSHIP BALLOT 1:

GOVE: 37
HANCOCK: 20
HARPER: 10 (OUT)
HUNT: 43
JAVID: 23
JOHNSON: 114
LEADSOM: 11 (OUT)
MCVEY: 9 (OUT)
RAAB: 27
STEWART: 19

Blinder for Johnson. Assuming he doesn't have anyone turn against him in next ballot he's already through to the next round.
Doesn't seem much doubt about it. Unless Johnson implodes (not impossible) he's going to be prime minister.
Bit disappointing for Hunt. If he'd piled on another dozen he'd have had a clear shot at second. In fact second is still wide open. Gove still v much in contention. And keep an eye on Javid. Not a bad finish. He's going to have his eye on Hancock's 20.
Johnson's lead not as impresssive as May's was in 2016 but then, there were far more candidates this time.
If Raab drops out there are 47 votes from hard Brexiters up for grabs. Johnson will presumably pick up a fair share of those.
Raab might fight and get closer to Gove and absorb some of those Leadsom/McVey votes for himself. Beyond that not clear though where he goes next. Not much space to grow because there aren't that many no dealers. Which is a reminder of the position's problem in parliament.
If Johnson is a runaway first he'll be able to say he's the clear pick of the parliamentary party; that the Tories don't want a Labour/Corbyn type problem in selecting someone not supported by the majority of MPs. That's powerful.
Btw even with seven candidates left (and three out) there are still more candidates left in this race than in any other Tory leadership contest in history.
Oh and worth noting: the UK's next prime minister will be definitely be a man. So, the record so far.

Male prime ministers: 284 years
Female prime ministers: 14 years
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More from @lewis_goodall see all

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Lewis Goodall
@lewis_goodall
As I said yesterday, the Tories’ grip on power is hanging by a thread. With a working majority of five (WITH the DUP) assuming they lose this seat, it’ll be very nearly gone. Even if we didn’t have Brexit to deal with, we’d be looking at election sooner rather than later.
This was a Lib Dem seat until 2015. Classic Welsh Liberal territory. Look at that Labour vote, prime for the squeezing. Assuming Brexit Party get involved Tories are in serious trouble.
Seat votes narrowly for Leave (52/48 as it happens) but certainly not by a big enough margin to be a problem for Lib Dems. They’re in the perfect position to consolidate disaffected remainer vote.
Read 6 tweets
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Lewis Goodall
@lewis_goodall
The government has a working majority of five. Two Conservative MPs have essentially said they can’t support any of the candidates for leader. That’s a big problem.
We keep talking about “our next prime minister” in this contest. But this will be the first time that we cannot be sure that whoever wins will actually command the support of the House. As a result they might not be prime minister for very long.
In this spirit keep a very close eye on what’s going on in Brecon and Radnorshire. The Conservatives’ grip on power is hanging by a thread.
Read 3 tweets
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Lewis Goodall
@lewis_goodall
I’m getting a bit tired of this “charisma” thing as the answer as to why Johnson will get a better deal from the EU than May. The reason May didn’t get a better deal isn’t because of charisma. It’s because Britain is in a fundamentally weaker negotiating position than they are.
Indeed, given the EU are palpably less impressed by Johnson’s Brideshead routine than many here are, there is every reason to believe they will be even less inclined to give him anything new than they were with May.
Moreover I can’t help but read all this “charisma” thing as a code for masculinity and a subtle dig at May not being “macho” enough, as Johnson himself has alluded to with his depiction of how Trump would handle the negotiations.
Read 7 tweets

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Robert Peston
@Peston
4th round Tory leadership results: Gove 61 (51) Hunt 59 (54) Javid 34 (38) Johnson 157 (143) So Javid is eliminated. 313 votes cast. Two spoiled papers
Gove nudges ahead of Hunt. Exciting last round.
We are all agog at the two spoiled ballot papers.
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Staedtler
@Staedtler
This is exactly why there's going to be a general election.

Hunt, Javid, Johnson and Gove want to renegotiate the backstop.

As far as I could tell Stewart wants to use technology that Europe has spent two years telling us doesn't exist.
This whole thing is just a dumb game show. One of these characters will be Tory leader and prime minister.
And every one of them is talking crap about how they're going to solve Brexit.
And Emily Maitlis is doing nothing to challenge any of it.
And I think this has become a massive problem with BBC political interviews. They're so sloppy and so cack-handed that all five candidates there are talking complete bollocks.
Not one of them with a viable policy.
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Robert Peston
@Peston
2nd round of Tory leadership contest: Gove 41 Hunt 46 Javid 33 Johnson 126 Raab 30 Stewart 37 So Raab forced out. 313 votes cast.
This is a story. Almost no momentum at all for @michaelgove and @Jeremy_Hunt. @sajidjavid scrapes home. But @RoryStewartUK continues to perform better than expected. Question is whether Stewart now becomes the “stop Boris”’candidate
Not an amazing performance by @BorisJohnson. He picked up 12 of the 50 votes available after four candidates were eliminated or dropped out last round. Stewart picked up 18.
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Staedtler
@Staedtler
Tory leadership candidates, and what they want.

New Dealers. All of these want to re-open the withdrawal agreement about the Irish border.

Gove
Hancock
Harper (who?)
Hunt
Javid
Johnson
Leadsom
McVey
Raab
The two remaining candidates have got different ideas.

Rory Stewart. His idea is to get Theresa May's deal through parliament. That's the realm of stupid he wants to lead the Tories into.
Now there's only one candidate left with anything new to offer.

Sam Gyimah wants a second referendum.

All the rest you can stick in the bin, the reheaters, redealers and repeat offenders.
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Amit Khandelia
@amitkhandelia
#Leadership requires people to stick with you through thick and thin.Leadership is the ability to rally people not for a single event,but for year. In business,leadership means that customers will continue to support your company even when you slip up." #StartWithWhy @simonsinek
"Great leaders, in contrast, are able to inspire people to act. Those who are able to inspire give people a sense of purpose or belonging that has little to do with any external incentive or benefit to be gained." #StartWithWhy by @simonsinek
"After September 11, there were customers who sent checks to Southwest Airlines to show their support. One note that accompanied a check for $1,000 read, “You’ve been so good to me over the years, in these hard times I wanted to say thank you by helping you out.”#StartWithWhy
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Brexitshambles
@brexit_sham
#Tory conference on the horizon & the 'no deal' #Brexit vultures circle the carcass. All the usual suspects incl' Littlewood, Singham and @SteveBakerHW for the IEA. @isaby, @Jacob_Rees_Mogg, @DanielJHannan, @patel4witham, @andreajenkyns for @matthew_elliott's BrexitCentral......
Thick as thieves...... Hannan and Singham again, Bromund of 'Anglo-American Relations,' Steifel of the Cato Institute, for the Heritage Foundation. The IEA again, this time with Arlene Foster and Nigel Dodds of the #DUP.
Flies on a turd..... Elliott's infamous 'Tax Payers' Alliance,' with Priti Patel again, and, of course @LowTaxChloe. The Bruges Group, with Patel (again), Jenkyns (again) and @OwenPaterson.....
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