Thread by @bopanc

The German government on Wednesday nearly halved its 2019 economic growth forecast from 1.8% to 1%, citing #Brexit as the first among key reasons for the slowdown. The shock of no-deal Brexit is widely expected to cause a recession here and elsewhere.

The German minister for econ affairs @peteraltmaier said today that it is not really possible to prepare for a no-deal #Brexit in some sectors, also due to currency fluctuations etc

So the idea that the #EU is united in some sort of stoic view on no-deal #Brexit as highly manageable is not correct. In fact Chancellor #Merkel has spoken to Ireland's Varadkar about his intentions. Top politicians/officials here say it would be good if Ireland would reconsider

That doesn't mean pressure on Ireland, yet, and it is not clear that such pressure would yield any results since there is a broad support for the backstop there. But the fact remains that right now Varadkar's political future is a defining factor in the #Brexit process

The #EU 27 will of course support Ireland, but the idea that the backstop is worth a no-deal #Brexit is not prevalent. Paris is eg hard, bc of concerns that the SingleMarket would be compromised, compounded by weak French competitiveness. Such fears are not pronounced in Berlin

The British have said what they want: they capitulated on every single demand, but they cannot capitulate on the permanent all-weather backstop. A watered-down backstop would be more than acceptable in many #EU capitals, incl Berlin, as well among some Council honchos.

So, for some, the default option now is postponing #Article50. This would mean the travesty of Britain holding European Elections etc. And it would likely be a postponement longer than most people expect, probably by the end of this year.