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This. IRGC retaliation would target US's Gulf allies (particularly Saudi Arabia) and would shut down oil shipping out of Hormuz, but the main battlefield would likely be in Iraq. The US does not have the stomach for a prolonged fight, meanwhile the IRGC sees this as existential.
...Which means that Trump won't commit long term, choosing instead to hit some targets here and there. The IRGC can maintain a low level war going for a long time, and then escalate and devour the region once the US moves on.
And if the battle is ever taken inside Iran proper, expect a wave of well-funded, state-supported terrorism across the region and in the Western world. If you back this Iranian regime to the wall, they'll take the entire region to the ground with them.
The situation requires a steady hand, something Trump definitely doesn't have. The Iranian regime is far more vulnerable economically then it is militarily. Shifting the confrontation to a military one also shifts it onto a favorable playing field for them.
