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Jon Worth
@jonworth
, 6 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Reminding myself why I take the train rather than flying... in addition to the environmental benefits.

My Chișinău (KIV) - Schönefeld (SXF) machine is incoming from Memmingen (FMM)...
... but with 7 browser windows open - 3 for FlightRadar24, 3 for Allgäu Airport Memmingen (that doesn't have proper live info - only a German Airport would do that today), and 2 for Flight Stats, still no idea what's up
I think my plane will be HA-LPW flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/… and my flight is W6 6910.
I suppose it serves me right for flying with Wizzair, the airline that makes Ryanair look like paragons of virtue... jonworth.eu/how-to-complai…
And now I know what's up... my plane has only just left Memmingen.

I am about the only person in the whole place who knows what's going on.
This is what annoys me most about all of this - the data *is* available in many cases, but airlines and airports have no incentive to give it all to passengers.
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
So I have been wondering... how do we actually work out the impact of the Tory leadership election on #Brexit?

When both of the candidates are so very vague or 🦄 with their statements...
There is a series by @MSmithsonPB about the current odds on who wins - the latest is here:
www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/arch…
That has then gone into a revised V6 of my #BrexitDiagram

Edges up the chances of an election, and edges down No Deal and Brexit with a Deal

The chances are:

General Election - 63%
#PeoplesVote - 4%
No Deal - 18%
Extend Art 50 period - 8%
Brexit with a Deal - 7%
Read 8 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
So what is the impact of Johnson's personal difficulties, and stumbling media performances, on likely #Brexit outcomes?

I've tried to work it out in Series 3, V6 of my #BrexitDiagram
This has an 80% chance of Johnson winning, 20% chance for Hunt. This is based on the state of betting as outlined by @MSmithsonPB.

I will adjust that if chances for the candidates change.

I have then tried to work out what each of them would actually *do* once elected.
Outcomes, and trend in comparison to V5 from 13 June
General Election 61% ⬇️
#PeoplesVote 4% ⬇️
No Deal 19% ↔️
Further #Article50 Extension 8% (re-entry)
Brexit with a Deal 8% ⬆️
Read 4 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
A real, genuine question for the #Brexit nerds (and no sarcastic comments *please*) - what do we think Hunt and Johnson would actually *do* on Brexit?
My best guess for Hunt:

- go to meet Barnier and others in BXL shortly after being elected, to see what he can get
- return to Westminster with little more than the current WA+PD
- see there's no majority for it
- end up asking EU for a delay
Best guess for Johnson:

- go off to BXL making some kind of waffling but bombastic demands, like "alternative arrangements" for NI border
- EU tells him this isn't workable
- returns to London claiming intransigence of the EU
- then heads for No Deal, Commons seeks to stop it...
Read 5 tweets

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Big Boss
@escapedmatrix
Today is #Juneteenth, a day commemorating the announcement of the end of slavery in the U.S. While the Emancipation Proclamation was signed in 1863, it took years for all states to officially adopt the proclamation.

Years later, and black people still aren't valued in America.
June 19th marked the end of slavery. America has black people so programmed, most skip recognizing the day we got freedom, but look forward to celebrating 4th of July. Stop living blindfolded. Know your history. #Juneteenth
Public Service Announcement: A lot of people will be tweeting about #Juneteenth. If ANYONE needs confirmation on which politicians, celebrities, etc. really care about helping black people.. ask me. I've been taking notes, and most of them DO NOT CARE. It's for retweets.
Read 8 tweets
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T. Greg Doucette
@greg_doucette
I mean really 😂
Got a thread on it that ends here:

There are some additional nuances by state, but that should get him mostly up-to-speed

Basically, yes. It's not an affirmative defense but it will be an argument they make in their briefs, based on the evidence that comes out during discovery or affidavits that get filed

That language is more signaling than legal effect though

1/
Read 1708 tweets
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T. Greg Doucette
@greg_doucette
Exactly that

Always glad to provide the entertainment! 👊

Tex. Civ. Prac. & Rem. Code § 73.054(b)

Read 1683 tweets
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T. Greg Doucette
@greg_doucette
This was already addressed mid-thread. You do realize filing lawsuits costs money to the court, yes?

Not getting paid != going into the hole paying the court costs

The goat's still waiting...

There are a few options. Provide evidence he wasn't there or X wasn't there, or depose X and challenge X's credibility (history of lying, etc), or provide evidence X is lying (emails, texts, etc), or get on the stand to say "that's false" and pray

They're too dim to realize ppl find out about the GFMs *because* they were shared on Twitter

Read 1743 tweets
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Henry Jones
@hthjones
#OTD 3 Commando Brigade leave Portsmouth for the #Falklands aboard SS Canberra.
A section of BBC News from 9th April 1982: the Soviet Union describe the UK’s task force as "an immediate threat to international peace"

Fascinating to watch, the rest can be found here:
A CIA brief from 9th April states "the Argentines are reportedly lengthening the air strip in Port Stanley to accommodate A-4, MIRAGE, PUCARA, and C-130 aircraft and reinforcing the island with additional troops and air defence equipment"
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