,
7 tweets,
2 min read
Read on Twitter
What does it mean that Iran has techinically breeched one of the limits of the historic anti-nuclear deal? It is not a sprint to a bomb. They are a long way away. This is more message than threat. Let me explain with just a few facts. 1/
Iran had over 10,000kg of low-enriched uranium gas (LEU) before the agreement. They were required to ship 98% of it out of the country. They were left with a token amount of 300kg at 3.5% purity. 2/
It takes about 1,050kg of LEU to make the core of one bomb. They would have to further enrich it in centrifuges until they had about 25kg of highly-enriched uranium (HEU) at about 90% purity. Then they could fashion that into metal and shape it into a bomb core. 3/
Before the accord, Iran had over 19,000 centrifuges they could have used to spin that LEU into HEU. It would have taken a few weeks. They now have only 3-4,000 operating. It would take at least a year to make enough HEU now. 4/
We would see it happening, thanks to the intrusive inspections required by the accord. Remember, the US violated the accord over a year ago but all the other nations are still in it. Up until now, Iran has been observing all of it, despite the massive sanctions the US imposed. 6/
Iran has been exporting any LEU they made above the 300kg limit - but just two months ago the US imposed sanctions on any country that bought it. They are continuing to slowly produce it, but are now stockpiling it. It seems the amount will slowly grow by tens of kilograms. 7/
In other words, this breech can be stopped either by Iran not making any more, or by the US dropping those sanctions and letting them export it. Better yet, the US could agree to get fully back in the deal that was working well- it blocked all of Iran’s pathways to a bomb. 8/8
