Thread by @ejmalrai

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On the 7th of July, we shall be facing a critical situation:
. #Iran will exert its right to partially or fully withdraw from the nuclear deal as stated in the comprehensive document.
. #US pushed Iran to leave the deal and would like to see Iran making this particular move

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. #US is unlikely to stand down and will push media to point out the finger of blame on #Iran
. Iran can't pull back and its procedure of withdrawal will be gradual and will give a second ultimatum after implementing the first on next month. Iran won't stand down.

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. #Iran warned: if my oil and petrochemical products can't be sold, the 17 million barrel of oil per day won't cross the Strait of Hormuz. This promise will be gradually increased and implemented.

What are the most likely scenarios?

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. #US is sending troops to the Gulf: 2500 + 1000 so far. More tankers will be attacked, more likely the possibility of clash can take place. This can lead to a one-off clash at the start but may increase later if a solution is not reached.

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The situation in the Gulf concerns all of us. Consequences will hit on Europe, ME, and the rest of the world. The price of Oil can easily increase following the third attack in the Gulf. But what about the possibility of war?

It will depend on the third attack next month.

If you want to know why all this crisis in the Gulf that it may spill over to other ME countries and trigger a war, listen to #US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi @SpeakerPelosi words of wisdom in this video, asking What Is Trumps Motivation For Provoking Iran? realclearpolitics.com/video/2019/06/…