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Edwin Hayward🦄🗡️
@uk_domain_names
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
A possibly controversial view: Labour and the Tories have decided that Brexit is so intractable, they are sabotaging themselves as vigorously as possible. Endgame: achieve the unprecedented feat of ushering in a LibDem Government.

That way, Brexit's not their problem any more.
It's hard to find another explanation for why Jeremy Corbyn and Labour are so dreadfully incompetent, and how they manage to dredge up scandals and keep them alive day after day, week after week, month after month, year after year. More frequent than buses.
Equally, the Tory leadership contest has turned disastrous so quickly, it almost feels "engineered", as if someone has taken the strategic decision to show the country just how venal, untrustworthy and uncaring the candidates are.
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Edwin Hayward🦄🗡️
@uk_domain_names
There's a major trend of Tories coming out and saying that no deal Brexit would mean "economic disaster", "economic shock", "economic chaos" or "recession"... and then immediately continuing "but we have to do it anyway".

Where are the sunny uplands?

We. Can. Still. Stop. It.
Funny thing is, some of the strongest advocates of Brexit aren't super rich (Tory MPs must be rich is a common misconception). Well off? Sure, an MP's salary's very decent. But rich? Not necessarily. Conclusion: they're going ahead with it just to win a few more months in power.
Yes, for them, the trade-off "destroy the UK economy for decades, and break up the Union" is worth it if it lets them keep their jobs a little bit longer.

I think I prefer it when it's the rich ones pushing Brexit. At least I understand their motivation, even if I despise it!
Read 3 tweets
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Edwin Hayward🦄🗡️
@uk_domain_names
Canada won't roll over its EU trade deal for us. Bye bye all that juicy free trade.
The kicker is they're behaving exactly as everyone who understands the WTO predicted: because we are likely going to drop our tariffs to zero in the event of a no deal Brexit, Canada are waiting to see if they can get some sweet tariff-free trade without conceding anything.
And where Canada goes, we can expect most of the world to follow. Certainly the big players. Why would anyone roll over a deal when they can enjoy the benefits of free trade anyway just by waiting us out? No deal means no leverage, and no chance of striking decent deals.
Read 4 tweets
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Edwin Hayward🦄🗡️
@uk_domain_names
It's important to understand why the global financial crisis was so harsh, because it signposts the way for the likely damage we will incur from Brexit.

Put plainly, by far the biggest damage came from lower tax receipts (see graphic)
Through a combination of Government tax policies and slower economic growth, the Treasury took in £236 billion less over the 2008-2018 period than it was "supposed" to (ie compared to what it would have collected if you simply raise the 2008/9 tax figure in line with inflation)
That massive shortfall is 7x the £33 billion of the bank bailout (latest figure - it used to be higher, but much of the money has been repaid to the Government by now)

Think on that for a moment. Over £200 billion in taxes uncollected because of the economic downturn.
Read 7 tweets

Related threads

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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
1) Why does no-one talk about the EU trade defecit or German car makers any more?

The £350m & the lies on immigration were important but an absolute consistent #Brexit tag line was "they need us more than we need them"

*that* was the Brexit on offer, a desperate, pliant EU
2) the sequence of events is very simple yet never picked up by our media who cannot look back more than 48 hours:

- Brexiters told us the German car makers because of our huge trade defecit would be desperate for a trade deal
- "its in their interest, they have more to lose"
3) - Gove, Johnson, Davis, Grayling, Farage, all of them said we were guaranteed a better #Brexit deal than we have now

Some of them might even have believed it.

- we wouldn't need to be *in* the Single Market because we would have full *access* to it, at no cost to the UK
Read 14 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
So what is Olly Robbins up to in Brussels, and will he be saving #Brexit any time soon? (Yes, you don't need to answer that). But here's some thoughts. 1/Thread

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…
So understand that, as I think @Mij_Europe first mentioned, the focus of meetings is on examining texts that might "entrench" whatever promises Labour get from Tories in this negotiation - and the current focus of this is in text of Withdrawal Agreement Bill. /2
@Mij_Europe It goes without saying that all this is moot if Tories and Labour cannot agree a deal. And with Labour digging in on Second Referendum requirement and Tories spooked by Brexit Party and prospects of customs union deal...it's hard (to put it kindly) to see how a deal happens/3
Read 19 tweets
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Glen O'Hara
@gsoh31
So, where are we today? Overall I would say that the #Labour #Corbyn strategy is working well, and is likely to see Jez in No. 10 at some point in the next year or just over a year.
The #Conservatives are experiencing what looks to me rather like damage ERM crisis did to them in autumn 1992. Have lost 13 points (!) with @YouGov in just six weeks. Bear in mind that experience shows that such falls get worse for some time - could be headed v low.
The moment MV3 failed to pass was a clarifying one, and therefore welcome here - had been wondering for years what was keeping the CON score so high. It was #Brexit. We're now at 50/50 whether it even happens. They will struggle to recover.
Read 14 tweets
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Open Europe
@OpenEurope
Labour leader @jeremycorbyn delivering #Brexit speech in Wakefield: Let there be no doubt: Theresa May’s deal is a bad deal for our country and Labour will vote against it next week in parliament.
Corbyn: If the govt cannot pass its most important legislation, there must be general election at the earliest opportunity.
Corbyn: If general election cannot be secured, Labour will keep other options on the table, including another #Brexit public vote
Read 11 tweets
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
#Brexit
1) Thread - All Brexits are bad and what we voted for
It's often said by brexiters that "it's not all about economics"
However, the *actual* Leave campaign was almost wholly about economic arguments

With the leak of this 2-8% report those arguments are now trashed
2) We seem to have forgotten this however economics played a huge part in the Vote Leave campaign, making up over 2/3rds of the primary arguements. The clear message was we would at the least be no worse off and at best much better off. 4 of the 6 below state this clearly
3) & the fact is voters believed we would be no worse off. People prioritized immigration certainly, but against a backdrop of there being no consequences from Brexit - few are prepared to actually pay for ending FoM
Read 36 tweets
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
So here's my last #Brexit thread of the year.

If you saw Theresa May's message today you'll see that all she has is bland platitudes. She's totally disconnected and out of her depth. She doesn't understand Brexit or the sentiment behind it & has no idea what direction to take.
This should come as no surprise. She is attempting to deliver something that cannot possibly satisfy everyone and will deliver little that was promised. She cannot have her Florence deal and at some point she has to come clean. This, though, is entirely the fault of Vote Leave.
Vote Leave hijacked Brexit, telling lies when there was no need. The Tory right have since made it an economic proposition based on a feeble command of the issues making bogus claims which do not stand, drawing red lines that will have to be crossed.
Read 16 tweets

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